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Match Prediction
Heerenveen win
Draw
Excelsior win
Heerenveen or draw
Excelsior or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:47 UTC · Track record
Two Points Apart, Both Stalling
Heerenveen and Excelsior open Eredivisie Matchday 9 on Friday night at the Abe Lenstra Stadion, separated by one place and two points. Excelsior go into the round 9th on 11 points from 8 games, with Heerenveen 10th on 9. Neither side has momentum, because both lost their most recent league game.
The State of Heerenveen
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Heerenveen’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | PSV | Away | L 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Sparta Rotterdam | Away | W 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| 13 Sep | Telstar | Home | D 0-0 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | AZ | Home | L 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| 30 Aug | Willem II | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
Robin Veldman’s side swing hard from week to week. They won 4-0 away at Sparta Rotterdam, then lost 0-2 away at PSV. The record over five games is 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost, with 8 scored and 7 conceded.
The real concern is at home. Heerenveen have played 2 games in Friesland in this run and won neither (1 drawn, 1 lost). The Abe Lenstra crowd expects front-foot football, and the home side have not delivered it. They kept 2 clean sheets but also failed to score twice. When the attack clicks, it can run up a score. When it stalls, nothing comes.
The State of Excelsior
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Excelsior’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Groningen | Home | L 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Ajax | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 13 Sep | Utrecht | Home | L 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| 8 Sep | NEC | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 5 Sep | Willem II | Away | W 3-0 | Eredivisie |
Ruben den Uil’s Excelsior are without a win in their last 4. The low point was a 1-5 defeat at home to Groningen, the heaviest loss in either side’s recent form. Over five games they conceded 11 goals.
Away from Rotterdam, though, they look like a different team: 1 won, 2 drawn and no defeats in 3 away games. That run includes a 2-2 draw away at Ajax. They also scored in all five games, so this attack does not go missing. Excelsior’s problem is at the back.
Head-to-Head
Heerenveen have won the last two meetings by the same margin. They won 2-1 at home on 4 October 2025, then won 2-1 in Rotterdam on 7 March 2026 (Excelsior 1-2 Heerenveen). Before that Excelsior won 3-0 twice, including a 0-3 win at the Abe Lenstra on 23 September 2023. Across the three meetings in Friesland in this sample, each side won one and one was drawn.
👀 What to Watch
This game sets Excelsior’s attack against Heerenveen’s weak home form. Excelsior travel well and always find a goal. Heerenveen need a fast start to ease the pressure from their own crowd. The question is whether the Groningen defeat shook Excelsior’s defence. If Heerenveen bring the sharpness they showed at Sparta, that back line will be tested early.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Heerenveen a 54% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 20% for Excelsior. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9. Heerenveen’s two straight wins in this fixture and Excelsior’s recent defensive problems drive that read. Excelsior’s unbeaten away run is the reason a draw is still a real possibility. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Heerenveen 1-0 Excelsior
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC / 20:00 CEST (Fri 16 Oct) / 19:00 BST (Fri 16 Oct) / 2:00 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct)
- Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
- Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC / 20:00 CEST (Fri 16 Oct) / 19:00 BST (Fri 16 Oct) / 2:00 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct)
- Where is Heerenveen vs Excelsior being played?
- Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion
- How can I watch Heerenveen vs Excelsior on TV?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
- Who won the last meeting between Heerenveen and Excelsior?
- Heerenveen won 2-1 away at Excelsior on 7 March 2026. It was their second straight 2-1 win in the fixture.
- What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
- Our prediction is Heerenveen 1-0 Excelsior. Heerenveen won the last two meetings, and Excelsior's defence has looked fragile recently.