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Match Prediction
Frankfurt win
Draw
Köln win
Frankfurt or draw
Köln or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:10 UTC · Track record
Frankfurt Need a Response After Leipzig
Friday night at Deutsche Bank Park opens Matchday 6, and Eintracht Frankfurt arrive straight from a 0-6 thrashing away at RB Leipzig. They go into the round 14th on 5 points from 5 games. Köln sit four places and two points better off, 10th on 7. A home win would let Adi Hütter’s side leapfrog Köln on points, while defeat would leave them in a hole before October is out.
The State of Frankfurt
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Frankfurt’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | RB Leipzig | Away | L 0-6 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Freiburg | Home | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Mainz | Away | W 3-1 | Bundesliga |
| 6 Sep | Augsburg | Home | L 1-4 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Aug | Union Berlin | Away | D 3-3 | Bundesliga |
The numbers that matter are at the back. Frankfurt have conceded 16 goals in their last five games and kept no clean sheets. The Leipzig rout was the worst of it, but losing 1-4 at home to Augsburg showed the problem is not confined to away trips. They have no win from their two home games in this run (one draw, one loss) and are without a win in their last two.
The attack is not the issue. Nine goals in five games, including a 3-3 away at Union Berlin and a 3-1 win away at Mainz, show a side that plays on the front foot and commits bodies forward. The cost is space behind. Hütter’s teams have always leaned on vertical, aggressive football, and right now the balance between pressing high and protecting the box is badly off.
The State of Köln
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Köln’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Mönchengladbach | Home | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Hamburg | Away | L 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Werder Bremen | Home | D 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| 4 Sep | Stuttgart | Away | L 1-4 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Aug | Hoffenheim | Home | W 3-2 | Bundesliga |
René Wagner’s Köln come in on a lift after beating Mönchengladbach 2-1 at home in the Rhineland derby. Home form has carried them: two wins and a draw from three at home in this run. Away from home it is a different story. They lost both away games in the run, including 1-4 away at Stuttgart, and have not kept a clean sheet in five.
They have scored in every one of those five games, though. Eight goals in that span means Köln will carry a threat to a Frankfurt back line that is leaking chances.
Head-to-Head
This fixture rarely produces a home win. Frankfurt have hosted five of the last ten meetings and won just one, with four draws. The most recent, on 5 April 2026 in Frankfurt, ended 2-2. Before that, Frankfurt won a wild 4-3 at Köln on 22 November 2025. Köln have scored in nine of the ten meetings.
👀 What to Watch
Frankfurt’s defensive shape after Leipzig is the story. Expect Hütter to tighten the distances between his lines and maybe sacrifice some of his full-backs’ attacking freedom. Köln’s away record suggests they are not built to dominate the ball on the road, so their best route is quick transitions into the space Frankfurt have been leaving. The first goal could shape everything: Frankfurt’s fragile confidence against a Köln side whose away form has yet to produce a point.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Frankfurt a 55% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 19% for Köln. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9. Home advantage and Köln’s two away defeats drive that read, though Frankfurt’s defensive record and the run of draws in this fixture at Deutsche Bank Park suggest the model may be generous to the hosts. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Frankfurt 1-0 Köln
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 18:30 UTC / 20:30 CEST (Fri 16 Oct) / 2:30 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct) / 19:30 BST (Fri 16 Oct)
- Venue: Deutsche Bank Park
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 6
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Frankfurt vs Köln?
- Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 18:30 UTC / 20:30 CEST (Fri 16 Oct) / 2:30 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct) / 19:30 BST (Fri 16 Oct)
- Where is Frankfurt vs Köln being played?
- Venue: Deutsche Bank Park
- How can I watch Frankfurt vs Köln on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Frankfurt and Köln?
- Nobody. The last meeting, on 5 April 2026 in Frankfurt, ended 2-2. Frankfurt won the meeting before that 4-3 at Köln on 22 November 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Frankfurt vs Köln?
- Our prediction is Frankfurt 1-0 Köln. Köln lost both of their recent away games, and home advantage should edge a tight game for Frankfurt.
