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Match Prediction
Lorient win
Draw
Monaco win
Lorient or draw
Monaco or draw
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.4 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:01 UTC · Track record
The Leaders Return to an Awkward Ground
Monaco go into Matchday 7 top of Ligue 1 on 14 points from six games, unbeaten and six points clear of eighth-placed Lorient. On paper this is first against mid-table. The recent history says otherwise: Lorient have beaten Monaco 3-1 in each of the last two meetings, and the Moustoir is where the leaders’ unbeaten start faces its most uncomfortable opponent.
The State of Lorient
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Lorient’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Paris FC | Home | W 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Le Mans | Away | L 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Toulouse | Home | D 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 5 Sep | Lens | Away | W 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 29 Aug | Troyes | Home | L 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
Lorient’s autumn has swung back and forth: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost, with 6 scored and 6 conceded. The latest result was the encouraging one, a 1-0 win at home to Paris FC in Ligue 1. The warning sign is the home record. They lost 1-2 at home to Troyes, and the Moustoir has produced one win, one draw and one defeat. Two numbers stand out. Lorient have scored in all five games, and both of their clean sheets came in 1-0 wins. This is a side that grinds out narrow margins, not one that blows teams away. Against Monaco, though, they have repeatedly found a more ruthless edge in transition.
The State of Monaco
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Monaco’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Toulouse | Home | D 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 18 Sep | Lens | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Strasbourg | Away | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 4 Sep | PSG | Away | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 30 Aug | Marseille | Home | W 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
Monaco are unbeaten in the last five: 3 won, 2 drawn, 9 scored, 5 conceded. The statement result was a 2-1 win away at PSG in Ligue 1, and they also won 2-0 at home to Marseille. That is a serious body of work against the division’s heavyweights. The softer edge is at the back. Monaco have kept one clean sheet in five, and they drew 2-2 at home to Toulouse most recently, the same Toulouse side Lorient also drew 2-2 with.
Head-to-Head
Across the last ten meetings, Lorient lead with 3 wins to Monaco’s 2, plus 5 draws. The recent trend belongs to the Bretons: they won 3-1 at the Moustoir on 27 September 2025, then won 3-1 in Monaco on 16 January 2026, both in Ligue 1. Lorient are unbeaten in the last four meetings. At this venue, the record over five meetings is Lorient 2 wins, Monaco 1, with 2 draws. Goals are the norm: only 2 of the 10 meetings finished with two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The key duel is Lorient’s ability to score against a Monaco defence that rarely shuts the door. The hosts have scored in every game of this run. Monaco have kept just one clean sheet. If the visitors play with the confidence they showed in Paris, they will push their full-backs high. That leaves the space Lorient exploited twice in the 3-1 wins. The other question is whether Monaco can turn possession into a second goal before Lorient’s counter finds a way through.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Lorient a 30% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 42% for Monaco. Expected goals: 1.1–1.4. Monaco’s unbeaten run and their win in Paris tilt the read their way, but Lorient’s recent wins over them make an upset entirely plausible. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.3%, but with the win probabilities favouring Monaco we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Lorient 0-1 Monaco
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC / 17:15 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 11:15 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 16:15 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Stade du Moustoir
- Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Lorient vs Monaco?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC / 17:15 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 11:15 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 16:15 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Lorient vs Monaco being played?
- Venue: Stade du Moustoir
- How can I watch Lorient vs Monaco?
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Lorient and Monaco?
- Lorient won 3-1 at Monaco on 16 January 2026 in Ligue 1. It was their second straight 3-1 win over Monaco.
- What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Monaco?
- Our prediction is Lorient 0-1 Monaco. Monaco's unbeaten run, including a 2-1 win away at PSG, gives them the edge, although Lorient's recent wins in this fixture keep the hosts in contention.