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Match Prediction
Everton win
Draw
Ipswich win
Expected goals: 1.8 – 0.7 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength, recent form & H2H
Model Probabilities
Statistical model estimates — not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 14 Sep 2026, 18:35 UTC
Six Points, Same Points, Different Stories
Everton and Ipswich sit level on six points from four matches, but the shape of their seasons could not look more different. Everton are unbeaten with one win and three draws. Ipswich have been far more volatile, with two wins and two defeats, shipping ten goals in the process. Something has to give at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
The State of Everton
Sean Dyche’s side opened the campaign with a clean 2-0 win over Crystal Palace, then drew their next three: 1-1 with Bournemouth, 2-2 with Manchester United, and a goalless stalemate against Tottenham on Matchday 4. That’s a team hard to beat but struggling to put opponents away. Five goals scored and three conceded in four matches tells the story of a side built on defensive structure, not attacking flair. Dyche’s Everton remain pragmatic and compact, relying on collective organisation rather than individual brilliance. The goalless draw with Spurs underlined their resilience but also raised questions about creativity going forward.
The State of Ipswich
Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich are a team of extremes. They beat Sunderland 2-1 on the opening day and followed that with a 2-5 hammering at the hands of Manchester United. A 0-2 defeat to Liverpool continued the pattern of struggle against stronger opposition, but they bounced back with a gutsy 3-2 victory over Crystal Palace last time out. Seven goals scored but ten conceded in four matches signals a side that plays with ambition but pays a price at the back. McKenna’s commitment to possession-based football makes Ipswich entertaining, but that open style has left them exposed on the counter.
Head-to-Head
These two met twice in 2024⁄25. At Portman Road in October 2024, Everton won 2-0. The reverse fixture at Everton’s ground in May 2025 ended 2-2. Everton are unbeaten in both recent meetings, and Ipswich have managed to score in just one of those two encounters.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is whether McKenna sticks with his expansive approach or tightens up at Everton’s ground. Ipswich’s ten goals conceded suggest they will offer Everton chances, but Dyche’s side have scored just five times all season. Everton’s inability to turn draws into wins meets Ipswich’s inability to keep clean sheets. If Everton can be even slightly more clinical than they were against Spurs, Ipswich’s defensive fragility could be decisive.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Everton a 64% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 13% for Ipswich. Expected goals: 1.8–0.7. Both teams score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.
Everton’s defensive solidity and home advantage make them clear favourites against a side that has leaked goals freely. The model puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 46%, reflecting Ipswich’s tendency to concede while also carrying a threat of their own. A low-scoring Everton win feels right given Dyche’s approach and Ipswich’s struggles on the road against organised defences. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Everton 1-0 Ipswich
Practical Info
Kickoff is at 15:00 BST (Sat 19 Sep) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 19 Sep) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 19 Sep) at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Watch on Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US).
FAQ
- What time is Everton vs Ipswich?
- Kickoff is at 15:00 BST (Saturday 19 September 2026), which is 10:00 AM EDT and 16:00 CEST.
- Where is Everton vs Ipswich being played?
- The match takes place at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton's home ground.
- What is the predicted score for Everton vs Ipswich?
- Our model predicts Everton 1-0 Ipswich. Everton's defensive organisation under Sean Dyche and Ipswich's struggles on the road point to a tight, low-scoring home win.
- How can I watch Everton vs Ipswich on TV?
- In the UK, the match is available on Sky Sports, TNT Sports, and BBC Match of the Day. In the US, coverage is on NBC Sports and Peacock.
- Who won the last meeting between Everton and Ipswich?
- The last meeting was a 2-2 draw at Everton's ground in May 2025. Before that, Everton won 2-0 at Portman Road in October 2024.
