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Match Prediction
Real Sociedad win
Draw
Levante win
Real Sociedad or draw
Levante or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 23 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Track record
Fifth Hosts Eleventh at Reale Arena
Real Sociedad go into Matchday 10 fifth on 16 points from nine games, six places and six points clear of Levante, who sit 11th on 10. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side have won three in a row in La Liga, and Luís Castro’s Levante arrive unbeaten in three. One of those runs bends at Reale Arena.
The State of Real Sociedad
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Real Sociedad’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Málaga | Away | W 5-2 | Primera Division |
| 11 Oct | Deportivo | Home | W 3-2 | Primera Division |
| 20 Sep | Valencia | Away | W 3-2 | Primera Division |
| 13 Sep | Atletico Madrid | Home | L 0-3 | Primera Division |
| 7 Sep | Elche | Away | W 3-2 | Primera Division |
The goals are the story: 14 scored across five league games, with four wins and one defeat. The other column is the worry. They conceded 11 and kept no clean sheet, so even the wins have been loose. The 5-2 win away at Málaga showed how dangerous they are in open games. The 0-3 defeat at home to Atletico Madrid showed what happens when a disciplined side takes the space away.
There is an odd split, too. All three away games in this run were wins, while at home they are 1 won and 1 lost. The team plays on the front foot, pushes full-backs high and trusts its attack to outscore problems. That approach has worked on the road. Sunday asks them to do it in front of their own crowd against a side that likes to break.
The State of Levante
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Levante’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct | Athletic Bilbao | Home | W 3-1 | Primera Division |
| 16 Oct | Deportivo | Away | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 12 Oct | Sevilla | Home | D 3-3 | Primera Division |
| 20 Sep | Villarreal | Away | L 1-3 | Primera Division |
| 13 Sep | Barcelona | Home | L 2-4 | Primera Division |
Levante’s five-game record reads 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost, with 10 scored and 12 conceded and no clean sheet. The recent trend is better than the totals. The 3-1 win at home to Athletic Bilbao on 21 October was their most complete display of the run. The 3-3 draw at home to Sevilla summed up their profile: they create, and they leak.
The road is the issue. Away from home they are 0 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in this sample. They also come into this game on a short turnaround after the Athletic match, which tests legs in a fixture likely to be played at a high tempo.
Head-to-Head
Real Sociedad have won all three meetings hosted at their ground in the sample. The most recent was a 2-0 home win on 4 April 2026. Before that, the clubs drew 1-1 at Levante’s ground on 20 December 2025. Real Sociedad scored in all seven listed meetings, and five of the seven had two goals or fewer. That is a tighter history than either side’s current form suggests.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Real Sociedad’s attack against a Levante defence that has not kept a clean sheet in five. If the home side score early, Levante must open up, and that suits Real Sociedad. The counter-risk is real: the home defence has conceded in every game of this run, and Levante have scored in every one of theirs. Levante’s best route is quick transitions into the space behind Real Sociedad’s advanced full-backs.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Real Sociedad a 52% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 22% for Levante. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9.
Real Sociedad’s perfect home record against Levante in the sample and Levante’s winless away form drive the lean to the home side. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.6%, but with the win probabilities favouring Real Sociedad we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Real Sociedad 1-0 Levante
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 17:30 UTC / 18:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 1:30 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 17:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Reale Arena
- Competition: La Liga, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
FAQ
- What time is Real Sociedad vs Levante?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 17:30 UTC / 18:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 1:30 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 17:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Real Sociedad vs Levante being played?
- Venue: Reale Arena
- How can I watch Real Sociedad vs Levante on TV?
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Real Sociedad and Levante?
- Real Sociedad won the most recent meeting 2-0 at their own ground on 4 April 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Real Sociedad vs Levante?
- Our prediction is Real Sociedad 1-0 Levante. Real Sociedad have won all three home meetings in the recent head-to-head, and Levante have not won away in their last five games.