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Match Prediction
Manchester United win
Draw
Bournemouth win
Manchester United or draw
Bournemouth or draw
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.1 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 23 Oct 2026, 05:58 UTC · Track record
Old Trafford Needs a Win, Not Another Draw
Manchester United go into the round 13th on 7 points from 7 games. Bournemouth sit two places and a single point behind them. Michael Carrick’s side are without a win in their last five in all competitions, so this is a home game against a side below them that they cannot afford to let drift.
The State of Manchester United
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Manchester United’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct | Como | Away | L 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| 18 Oct | Leeds | Away | D 1-1 | Premier League |
| 13 Oct | Atletico Madrid | Away | L 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Tottenham | Home | D 1-1 | Premier League |
| 20 Sep | Fulham | Away | D 1-1 | Premier League |
The result that hurts most is the 1-4 defeat away at Como in the Champions League, a heavy European loss with a league fixture close behind it. In the Premier League, United drew 1-1 away at Leeds. The tally reads 0 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost, with 4 scored and 9 conceded and no clean sheet. United keep finding a goal and keep giving one back. Four of the five listed games were away from Old Trafford. The only home game was a 1-1 draw with Tottenham, so the home crowd has yet to see a win in this run. The pressing issue is control: United have not been able to protect a game once they get level or ahead.
The State of Bournemouth
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Bournemouth’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Sunderland | Home | W 2-0 | Premier League |
| 10 Oct | Chelsea | Away | L 1-5 | Premier League |
| 20 Sep | Liverpool | Home | L 0-1 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Brentford | Home | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Newcastle | Away | D 2-2 | Premier League |
Marco Rose’s side come in off a 2-0 win at home to Sunderland in the Premier League, their only win and only clean sheet in the five listed games. Before that came a 1-5 defeat away at Chelsea, which showed how exposed they can be when a stronger side pins them back. Their record reads 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost, with 7 scored and 10 conceded. Draws of 2-2 away at Newcastle and at home to Brentford show an attack that will trade chances. Expect a high press and quick vertical play into the channels once they win the ball.
Head-to-Head
This fixture rarely stays tight: only 2 of the last 9 meetings finished with two goals or fewer. The last three meetings were all draws, including a 4-4 at Old Trafford on 15 December 2025 and a 2-2 at Bournemouth on 20 March 2026. Old Trafford has given United little edge. Of the five meetings there, each side won 2, and Bournemouth’s two wins at Old Trafford both finished 0-3, in December 2023 and December 2024.
👀 What to Watch
United’s rest defence against Bournemouth’s transitions. Conceding 9 in five games, including four at Como, points to a back line that gets caught when the ball turns over. Bournemouth’s press is built to force exactly that turnover high up the pitch. The second story is United’s end product: 4 goals in five games is thin for a home side expected to set the tempo.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Manchester United a 46% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 27% for Bournemouth. Expected goals: 1.4–1.1. Home advantage and Bournemouth’s leaky away form give United the edge, even though their own run is poor. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.1%, but with the win probabilities favouring United we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. Given how open this fixture has been, a narrow, low-scoring game would break the pattern. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Manchester United 1-0 Bournemouth
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Old Trafford
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Manchester United vs Bournemouth being played?
- Venue: Old Trafford
- How can I watch Manchester United vs Bournemouth on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Manchester United and Bournemouth?
- Nobody. The last meeting, on 20 March 2026 at Bournemouth, finished 2-2. It was the third draw in a row between the clubs.
- What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
- Our prediction is Manchester United 1-0 Bournemouth. United have home advantage and the model favours them, although 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline.