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Match Prediction
Athletic Bilbao win
Draw
Getafe win
Athletic Bilbao or draw
Getafe or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 23 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC · Track record
Level on Points, Short on Wins
Athletic Bilbao and Getafe go into Matchday 10 level on 9 points. Athletic sit 13th and Getafe 15th, and the home side have played one game fewer. Neither club expected to be looking over its shoulder in late October, and this is a fixture Getafe have recently made their own at San Mamés.
The State of Athletic Bilbao
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Athletic Bilbao’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct | Levante | Away | L 1-3 | Primera Division |
| 17 Oct | Valencia | Away | D 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 19 Sep | Alavés | Home | D 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 12 Sep | Elche | Home | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 5 Sep | Atletico Madrid | Home | W 3-0 | Primera Division |
Edin Terzić’s side are without a win in their last four. The 3-0 win at home to Atletico Madrid now looks like the outlier of the run. Three draws followed, and then a 1-3 defeat away at Levante in La Liga, the only game in the sample where the defence gave way. Before Levante, the back line had been reliable: Athletic have kept 3 clean sheets in their last five. The problem is at the other end. They have failed to score in 2 of those games and have 5 goals across the five. Athletic still play the San Mamés way: a high, aggressive press, quick wide runners and a crowd that pushes them forward. Against compact blocks, though, the press has less to win back, and the chance creation has dried up.
The State of Getafe
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Getafe’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct | Rayo Vallecano | Home | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 10 Oct | Barcelona | Away | L 0-3 | Primera Division |
| 20 Sep | Málaga | Home | W 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 17 Sep | Real Betis | Away | L 0-1 | Primera Division |
| 13 Sep | Deportivo | Home | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
Pepe Bordalás’s Getafe are true to type: narrow, physical and happy to keep a game ugly. Their form is thin. They have 3 goals scored and 6 conceded in their last five, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. Their only clean sheet came in the 1-0 win at home to Málaga. Away from home they have lost both games in the sample, including a 0-3 defeat away at Barcelona in La Liga. Their latest result was a 1-1 draw at home to Rayo Vallecano. Getafe do not need much of the ball to make a game uncomfortable, and San Mamés has not scared them.
Head-to-Head
Getafe have won the last two meetings. They won 2-0 at home on 5 April 2026, and before that they won 1-0 at San Mamés on 25 October 2025. Athletic have not beaten Getafe in their last five home meetings: four draws and that defeat. Across the last 10 meetings, the record is 2 wins each and 6 draws. Eight of those 10 games had two goals or fewer, and no side scored more than 2 in any of them.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is whether Athletic can break a deep, aggressive block without opening up. Getafe will concede the flanks, defend crosses and fight for every second ball. Athletic need quicker circulation in the final third, not more crosses into a crowded box. The other side of it is the counter. The Levante defeat showed what happens when Athletic’s high line is caught, and Getafe will look for long balls into that space. In a fixture where goals are scarce, set pieces could decide it.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Athletic Bilbao a 47% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 26% for Getafe. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Home advantage and Athletic’s clean sheet record drive that edge, but Getafe’s recent wins in this fixture keep the margin small. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.0%, but with the win probabilities favouring Athletic we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Getafe
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 14:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 13:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: San Mamés
- Competition: La Liga, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
FAQ
- What time is Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 14:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 13:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe being played?
- Venue: San Mamés
- Who won the last meeting between Athletic Bilbao and Getafe?
- Getafe won the last meeting 2-0 at home on 5 April 2026. They also won the meeting before that 1-0 at San Mamés on 25 October 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe?
- Our prediction is Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Getafe. Athletic's defensive record and home advantage give them the edge in a fixture that is usually low scoring.
- How can I watch Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe on TV?
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)