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Match Prediction
RB Leipzig win
Draw
Elversberg win
RB Leipzig or draw
Elversberg or draw
Expected goals: 1.9 – 0.6 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 23 Oct 2026, 05:54 UTC · Track record
Leipzig Chase the Upstarts Above Them
Elversberg go into the round sixth on 10 points from 6 games, one place and one point clear of RB Leipzig. A club from a Saarland village is sitting above Leipzig in the Bundesliga table. Leipzig come into this game after two heavy defeats in a row.
The State of RB Leipzig
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows RB Leipzig’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct | Real Madrid | Away | L 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Oct | Bayern Munich | Away | L 1-6 | Bundesliga |
| 13 Oct | PSV | Home | W 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Frankfurt | Home | W 6-0 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | Bayer Leverkusen | Away | L 0-2 | Bundesliga |
Martín Demichelis’s side have swung between extremes. They won 6-0 at home to Frankfurt in the Bundesliga, then lost 1-6 away at Bayern Munich. A 1-4 defeat away at Real Madrid in the Champions League followed. Across the five games they have scored 9 and conceded 12.
The home record gives some comfort. Leipzig played twice at the Red Bull Arena in this run and won both. Their football is still vertical and aggressive. They press high, attack the space quickly and push the full-backs on. Bayern and Madrid turned that high line around too often. Against an opponent that wants to play rather than sit in a low block, the same approach can work again at home.
The State of Elversberg
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Elversberg’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Augsburg | Home | W 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| 10 Oct | Union Berlin | Away | L 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | Schalke | Away | D 0-0 | Bundesliga |
| 13 Sep | Bayern Munich | Home | L 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Mönchengladbach | Away | W 4-3 | Bundesliga |
Vincent Wagner’s side are in their first Bundesliga season, and they are not playing like a team just trying to survive. They won 4-3 at home to Augsburg and 4-3 away at Mönchengladbach, both in the Bundesliga. Over five games they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their matches tend to be open.
They can also defend. The 0-0 away at Schalke showed they can grind out a point. They also lost only 1-2 at home to Bayern Munich, so nobody has blown them away yet. The weak spot is the attack: they failed to score in two of the five games.
Head-to-Head
These clubs have no meaningful top-flight history, so the head-to-head record tells us little about this game.
👀 What to Watch
Leipzig’s rest defence against Elversberg’s runners. Elversberg score in bursts. They hurt teams by getting players beyond the ball early. At Bayern, Leipzig’s advanced full-backs left the channels open. If Elversberg play quickly into those channels, Leipzig’s back line will be under pressure again.
Legs. Leipzig played in Madrid on 21 October and kick off here three days later. Elversberg have had a full week since the Augsburg win. If the visitors keep the game level past the hour, the fresher legs belong to them.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives RB Leipzig a 68% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 10% for Elversberg. Expected goals: 1.9–0.6. Leipzig’s home form in this run is the main reason: two games, two wins, two clean sheets. Elversberg also failed to score twice in five games. Our view is that the model underrates Elversberg a little, because they have made every game this season a contest. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 1-0 Elversberg
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Red Bull Arena
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is RB Leipzig vs Elversberg being played?
- Venue: Red Bull Arena
- How can I watch RB Leipzig vs Elversberg on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- What is the predicted score for RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
- Our prediction is RB Leipzig 1-0 Elversberg. Leipzig won both home games in their recent run without conceding, and Elversberg failed to score in two of their last five.
- Where are RB Leipzig and Elversberg in the Bundesliga table?
- Before this round, Elversberg are sixth on 10 points from 6 games. RB Leipzig are seventh on 9 points from 6 games, one point behind.