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Match Prediction
Blackburn win
Draw
Wrexham win
Blackburn or draw
Wrexham or draw
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 05:46 UTC · Track record
Four Places, One Point at Ewood
Blackburn go into the round 10th on 15 points from 11 games. Wrexham are 14th, a point behind and four places lower, with the same number of games played. Matchday 12 closes at Ewood Park with a straight contest for a top-half foothold. Tony Mowbray’s side also have a debt to settle: Wrexham won on this ground in the corresponding fixture last season.
The State of Blackburn
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Blackburn’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | West Brom | Away | L 2-3 | Championship |
| 13 Oct | Bristol City | Away | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Cardiff | Home | W 2-1 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Portsmouth | Away | D 2-2 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Millwall | Home | W 3-1 | Championship |
Rovers have three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. They scored in every one of those games, and they won both of their home matches in the run. The defeat was a 2-3 loss away at West Brom in the Championship. It showed both sides of this team: they can hurt a promoted-chasing side, and they can also leak goals to one. Before that, they won 1-0 away at Bristol City, which is their only clean sheet of the five. Mowbray’s teams have always preferred to build through midfield rather than go long, and Ewood suits that patient approach.
The State of Wrexham
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Wrexham’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Preston | Home | W 4-1 | Championship |
| 13 Oct | West Brom | Home | L 1-2 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Derby | Away | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Southampton | Home | W 2-1 | Championship |
| 11 Sep | West Ham | Away | L 0-6 | Championship |
Phil Parkinson’s side have two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 8 scored and 11 conceded and no clean sheets. The swings are huge. They won 4-1 at home to Preston in the Championship, but they also lost 0-6 away at West Ham. Away from home they have no wins in two (one draw, one defeat). The club’s climb from the National League to the second tier was built on Parkinson’s direct, physical style and a heavy threat from set pieces, and that identity has not changed.
Head-to-Head
The two most recent meetings both went Wrexham’s way or close to it. On 29 November 2025 the sides drew 1-1 at Wrexham. On 1 January 2026, Wrexham won 2-0 at Ewood Park. Blackburn have no win in those two games, and neither match had more than two goals.
👀 What to Watch
Wrexham’s dead balls against a Blackburn defence that conceded 7 in five games. Rovers must keep fouls away from their own box and win the first contact on corners. At the other end, Blackburn have scored in every game of their run, and Wrexham have not kept a clean sheet in theirs. If Rovers keep the ball and pull Wrexham’s block out of shape, the chances should come.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Blackburn a 38% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 34% for Wrexham. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.5%, but with the win probabilities favouring Blackburn we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. Blackburn’s perfect home record in this run and Wrexham’s winless away form tip it narrowly, though the head-to-head says this will be tight. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Blackburn 1-0 Wrexham
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Ewood Park
- Competition: Championship, Matchday 12
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
FAQ
- What time is Blackburn vs Wrexham?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Blackburn vs Wrexham being played?
- Venue: Ewood Park
- Who won the last meeting between Blackburn and Wrexham?
- Wrexham won 2-0 at Ewood Park on 1 January 2026. The meeting before that, on 29 November 2025 at Wrexham, finished 1-1.
- What is the predicted score for Blackburn vs Wrexham?
- Our prediction is Blackburn 1-0 Wrexham. Blackburn won both home games in their recent run, and Wrexham have no win in their last two away games.
- What channel is Blackburn vs Wrexham on?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)