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Match Prediction
West Ham win
Draw
Southampton win
West Ham or draw
Southampton or draw
Expected goals: 1.8 – 0.7 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 05:43 UTC · Track record
Second Hosts Seventh in a Promotion Test
West Ham go into the round 2nd on 22 points from 11 games. Southampton start it 7th on 17 points from 11 games, so five places and five points separate them. This closes Matchday 12, and it is the clearest measure yet of whether Tonda Eckert’s side belongs in the automatic promotion race or is chasing it.
The State of West Ham
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows West Ham’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Swansea | Away | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 14 Oct | Lincoln City | Away | W 6-0 | Championship |
| 9 Oct | QPR | Home | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Millwall | Away | D 2-2 | Championship |
| 11 Sep | Wrexham | Home | W 6-0 | Championship |
Nuno Espírito Santo’s team arrive unbeaten in the last 5, with 3 wins and 2 draws, 16 goals scored and 3 conceded. The headline result is the 6-0 win away at Lincoln City in the Championship, but the more telling one is the 1-0 win away at Swansea in the Championship. That was a narrow, controlled away win against a promotion rival, and it fits how this side has looked: 3 clean sheets in five and no game without a goal.
That combination is the problem for anyone visiting Stratford. West Ham can win ugly, and they can run up a score when a defence opens. A squad still carrying Premier League quality has turned that into a habit at this level, with 2 wins in a row going into this one.
The State of Southampton
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Southampton’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Bolton | Home | D 0-0 | Championship |
| 14 Oct | Norwich | Away | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 11 Oct | Portsmouth | Home | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Wrexham | Away | L 1-2 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Bristol City | Home | W 4-1 | Championship |
Southampton’s recent record reads 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost, with 7 scored and 3 conceded. They are unbeaten in the last 3. The 1-0 win at home to Portsmouth in the Championship took the south coast derby, and the defence has carried them since, with 3 clean sheets across the five games.
The concern is at the other end. Their latest outing was a 0-0 draw at home to Bolton in the Championship, and goals have been hard to come by outside one big home afternoon. Away from St Mary’s they have 1 win and 1 defeat from 2 games.
Head-to-Head
Across the last 8 meetings, West Ham have 3 wins, Southampton 1, with 4 draws. Six of those eight finished with 2 goals or fewer. The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2025 at the London Stadium, ended West Ham 1-1 Southampton. Southampton’s only win in the sample came on 26 December 2021: West Ham 2-3 Southampton, in East London.
👀 What to Watch
This is West Ham’s attack against the defence that has kept Southampton in touch. Both sides have 3 clean sheets in their last five, but West Ham have scored in every one of those games. Southampton’s one defeat in that run came away at Wrexham, a side West Ham beat 6-0 at home. If the visitors concede first, their recent scoring rate makes a comeback in Stratford a tall order.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives West Ham a 62% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 14% for Southampton. Expected goals: 1.8–0.7. West Ham’s home form and scoring consistency drive that read, while Southampton’s defensive record and the low-scoring history of this fixture point to a tight margin rather than a rout. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: West Ham 1-0 Southampton
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: London Stadium
- Competition: Championship, Matchday 12
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
FAQ
- What time is West Ham vs Southampton?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is West Ham vs Southampton being played?
- Venue: London Stadium
- How can I watch West Ham vs Southampton?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
- Who won the last meeting between West Ham and Southampton?
- Nobody. The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2025 at the London Stadium, finished West Ham 1-1 Southampton.
- What is the predicted score for West Ham vs Southampton?
- Our prediction is West Ham 1-0 Southampton. West Ham have scored in every game of their unbeaten run, and Southampton's strong defensive record points to a narrow margin.