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Match Prediction
Köln win
Draw
Schalke win
Köln or draw
Schalke or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 21:01 UTC · Track record
Two Nervous Clubs, Two Points Apart
Köln go into the round 12th on 7 points from 6 games. Schalke sit 15th on 5. Only two points and three places split them, so this is a direct meeting of two clubs looking down the table rather than up it. Schalke arrive on two straight defeats and without a win in three.
The State of Köln
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Köln’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Frankfurt | Away | L 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| 11 Oct | Mönchengladbach | Home | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Hamburg | Away | L 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Werder Bremen | Home | D 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| 4 Sep | Stuttgart | Away | L 1-4 | Bundesliga |
Köln’s season splits cleanly by venue. At home in this run they are unbeaten (1 won, 1 drawn). Away, it is three games and three defeats. The 2-1 win at home to Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga showed what the RheinEnergieStadion does for René Wagner’s side. The 0-1 defeat away at Frankfurt was the latest reminder of how thin their margins are on the road.
The numbers point at the back line: 5 scored, 9 conceded and no clean sheet across the five games. Wagner’s side push forward at home and accept the risk that comes with it. They will need that attacking intent against a Schalke side that rarely gives much away.
The State of Schalke
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Schalke’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Mainz | Home | L 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| 11 Oct | Freiburg | Away | L 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | Elversberg | Home | D 0-0 | Bundesliga |
| 11 Sep | Union Berlin | Away | W 3-1 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Bayern Munich | Home | D 0-0 | Bundesliga |
Miron Muslic’s team is built from the back. They conceded 4 goals in five games and kept two clean sheets, one of them a 0-0 at home to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. The problem is at the other end. They failed to score in three of those five games, and the 0-1 defeat at home to Mainz made it two losses in a row.
Their one win came on the road, 3-1 away at Union Berlin, and it was their only multi-goal game of the run. That is the template Muslic will want here: stay compact, then hurt Köln in transition.
Head-to-Head
Köln have owned this fixture recently: four wins and one draw from the last five meetings, and no Schalke win. All three of those meetings in Cologne went Köln’s way, most recently a 3-1 Bundesliga win on 7 August 2022. The last meeting overall, on 29 January 2023 at Schalke, finished 0-0.
👀 What to Watch
Köln’s attack against Schalke’s low block is the story. Without a clean sheet in five, the hosts cannot sit on a one-goal lead. They need a second, and Schalke’s defensive record says it will not come easily. If Schalke keep it level into the second half, the pressure shifts onto Köln and their open back line. That is exactly where a Schalke counter, as in the Union Berlin win, becomes dangerous.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Köln a 47% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 25% for Schalke. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0.
Köln’s perfect home record against Schalke in this sample and Schalke’s struggle to score drive the read. Schalke’s tight defence keeps the margin small. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.0%, but with the win probabilities favouring Köln we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Köln 1-0 Schalke
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: RheinEnergieStadion
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Köln vs Schalke?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Köln vs Schalke being played?
- Venue: RheinEnergieStadion
- How can I watch Köln vs Schalke on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Köln and Schalke?
- Nobody. The last meeting, on 29 January 2023 at Schalke, finished 0-0. Köln won the four meetings before that.
- What is the predicted score for Köln vs Schalke?
- Our prediction is Köln 1-0 Schalke. Köln have won all three recent meetings in Cologne, and Schalke failed to score in three of their last five games.