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Match Prediction
Mainz win
Draw
Werder Bremen win
Mainz or draw
Werder Bremen or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · Track record
Mainz Must Fix Their Home Problem
Mainz go into the round fifth on 10 points from six games, a single point and three places above eighth-placed Werder Bremen. Urs Fischer’s side have been ruthless on the road and fragile at the MEWA Arena. Bremen have never lost at this ground in the five meetings on record.
The State of Mainz
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Mainz’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Schalke | Away | W 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| 10 Oct | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | L 3-4 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Mönchengladbach | Away | W 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Frankfurt | Home | L 1-3 | Bundesliga |
| 6 Sep | Hamburg | Away | W 5-0 | Bundesliga |
Mainz’s form splits cleanly by venue. They have three wins from three away games and two defeats from two at home. The 5-0 win away at Hamburg showed how dangerous they are with space to break into. The 3-4 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen showed the cost when a home game turns into a shootout. Across the five games they scored 14 and conceded 10, kept two clean sheets and scored in every match. The 1-0 win away at Schalke was a different kind of result: a game controlled rather than chased. That is the version Fischer needs on home turf, where opponents sit deeper and Mainz’s direct, transition-heavy approach has less room to work.
The State of Werder Bremen
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Werder Bremen’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Paderborn | Home | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 9 Oct | Dortmund | Away | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Augsburg | Home | W 3-2 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Köln | Away | D 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | RB Leipzig | Home | W 3-1 | Bundesliga |
Daniel Thioune’s Bremen are unbeaten in five, with two wins, three draws, 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. The catch is at the back: no clean sheet in any of those games, and two straight draws. The 2-2 away at Dortmund was a strong away point. The 2-2 at home to Paderborn felt more like two points dropped. Away from home they have two draws from two. They keep scoring, but they cannot close games out.
Head-to-Head
Bremen lead the last ten meetings with five wins to Mainz’s three, plus two draws. At Mainz the record is starker: no Mainz wins in five, three for Bremen and two draws. The most recent meeting went the other way. Mainz won 2-0 at Bremen’s ground on 15 March 2026, after a 1-1 draw in Mainz on 1 November 2025. Seven of the ten meetings had two goals or fewer, an odd fit for two sides currently in open, high-scoring form.
👀 What to Watch
The key issue is Bremen’s scoring run against a Mainz defence that leaks at home. Bremen have scored in all five recent games, and Mainz conceded seven across their two home matches. If Bremen score first, Mainz must chase the game. That is exactly the kind of open contest they lost against Frankfurt and Leverkusen. Mainz’s best route is patience: win the ball in midfield and strike quickly before Bremen’s back line resets.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Mainz a 49% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 24% for Werder Bremen. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Mainz’s league position and attacking output drive that lean, though their home record and Bremen’s unbeaten run in Mainz make the model’s confidence look generous. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.8%, but with the win probabilities favouring Mainz we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Mainz 1-0 Werder Bremen
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: MEWA Arena
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Mainz vs Werder Bremen being played?
- Venue: MEWA Arena
- Who won the last meeting between Mainz and Werder Bremen?
- Mainz won 2-0 at Werder Bremen's ground on 15 March 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
- Our prediction is Mainz 1-0 Werder Bremen. The model favours Mainz on league position and attacking output, although 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline.
- How can I watch Mainz vs Werder Bremen on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)