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Match Prediction
Toulouse win
Draw
Troyes win
Toulouse or draw
Troyes or draw
Expected goals: 1.9 – 0.6 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:59 UTC · Track record
Troyes Arrive With Their Season Slipping
Troyes go into Matchday 8 in 17th place on 4 points from 7 games, and they travel south after five straight defeats. Toulouse sit 11th on 9 points, six places and five points clear of their visitors, and they are unbeaten in four. For Jens Berthel Askou’s side this is a chance to turn a steady run into real momentum. For Stéphane Dumont’s Troyes, the job is to stop the bleeding before the run defines their season.
The State of Toulouse
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Toulouse’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Le Mans | Away | W 3-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 10 Oct | Monaco | Away | D 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Le Havre | Home | W 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Lorient | Away | D 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 3 Sep | Lille | Home | L 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
The best result of the run came most recently. Toulouse won 3-0 away at Le Mans in Ligue 1, which was their only clean sheet of the five listed games. Before that, they drew 2-2 away at Monaco, a point earned against one of the division’s stronger squads. Over the five games they scored 10 and conceded 7. The attack is working, but the defence still gives chances away.
The interesting detail is where the points have come from. Away from home, Toulouse took 1 win and 2 draws from three games. Their only defeat in the sample came at home, when they lost 0-1 to Lille. Askou will want the Stadium de Toulouse to feel like a fortress again, and Troyes give him the right opponent for that.
The State of Troyes
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Troyes’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Lens | Home | L 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Oct | Marseille | Home | L 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Angers | Away | L 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 13 Sep | Lille | Away | L 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 6 Sep | Strasbourg | Home | L 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
The numbers are harsh: 5 defeats, 3 goals scored, 15 conceded, and no goal at all in three of the five games. The low point was a 2-6 home defeat to Strasbourg in Ligue 1. Their most recent outing was a 1-3 home defeat to Lens. Troyes have been beaten home and away, and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of the five games.
The immediate problem is defensive. Reading the results one by one, Troyes conceded at least two goals in every game of the run. Dumont must find a way to make his side hard to break down before he can worry about scoring.
Head-to-Head
Toulouse won both meetings in the data. On 14 August 2022 they won 3-0 at Troyes’ ground. On 1 February 2023 they beat Troyes 4-1 in Toulouse. Toulouse scored three or more goals both times.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Toulouse’s attack against a Troyes back line that has not held firm for five games. Toulouse scored three goals in two of their last three games. If they score early, Troyes may have to open up, and the game could get away from them. The visitors’ best chance is a low, compact block that keeps the game scoreless for as long as possible and gives their fragile confidence time to grow.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Toulouse a 67% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 11% for Troyes. Expected goals: 1.9–0.6. Toulouse’s unbeaten run, their clear head-to-head record and Troyes’ leaky defence all point the same way. The model’s most likely scoreline is a narrow win, though the form of both teams suggests the margin could be wider. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Toulouse 1-0 Troyes
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC / 17:15 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 11:15 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:15 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Stadium de Toulouse
- Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Toulouse vs Troyes?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC / 17:15 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 11:15 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:15 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Toulouse vs Troyes being played?
- Venue: Stadium de Toulouse
- How can I watch Toulouse vs Troyes?
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Toulouse and Troyes?
- Toulouse won it. They beat Troyes 4-1 in Toulouse on 1 February 2023.
- What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Troyes?
- Our prediction is Toulouse 1-0 Troyes. Toulouse are unbeaten in four, and Troyes arrive after five straight defeats.