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Match Prediction
Atalanta win
Draw
Frosinone win
Atalanta or draw
Frosinone or draw
Expected goals: 1.7 – 0.8 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:53 UTC · Track record
Bergamo Looks Up at Frosinone
A bottom-half Atalanta host a Frosinone side flying in the top six, a reversal few would have pencilled in back in August. Frosinone go into the round 6th on 13 points from 7 games, and Atalanta sit 11th on 9 points from 7. The visitors are five places and four points clear, so this is a chance for Maurizio Sarri’s side to close the gap at home, or to fall further behind a newly promoted rival.
The State of Atalanta
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Atalanta’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Milan | Away | L 2-3 | Serie A |
| 12 Oct | Venezia | Home | W 3-1 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Juventus | Away | L 0-2 | Serie A |
| 12 Sep | Cagliari | Home | L 1-2 | Serie A |
| 5 Sep | Roma | Away | L 1-2 | Serie A |
The tally makes grim reading: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost, with 10 goals conceded and no clean sheet. The 3-1 home win over Venezia in Serie A showed what this group can do at the Gewiss Stadium. The 2-3 loss away at Milan in Serie A was a performance with goals in it, but the defence still leaked three.
Sarri wants control through short passing and a compact back line. That puts weight on Isak Hien and Giorgio Scalvini to defend high and play out cleanly. Éderson and Franck Kessié give the midfield its legs. Raoul Bellanova and Davide Zappacosta supply width, and Mario Pašalić and Eljif Elmas must find the late runs that turn possession into chances.
The State of Frosinone
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Frosinone’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Sassuolo | Home | W 4-2 | Serie A |
| 10 Oct | Napoli | Away | L 0-3 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Como | Home | W 2-0 | Serie A |
| 12 Sep | Genoa | Away | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Venezia | Home | W 3-2 | Serie A |
Frosinone have 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost, and 10 goals scored. The split is the story: 3 wins from 3 at home, but no win from 2 away games. The 4-2 home win over Sassuolo in Serie A showed their attacking reach. The 0-3 loss away at Napoli in Serie A showed the cost of travel.
Massimiliano Alvini’s teams press with intensity and commit bodies forward. Florian Grillitsch sets the tempo from deep. Kevin Akpoguma and Ilario Monterisi anchor the defence, and Aleksa Terzić gives them thrust from the left.
Head-to-Head
The two recent meetings split one apiece. Frosinone won 2-1 at home on 26 August 2023. Atalanta answered with a 5-0 win in Bergamo on 15 January 2024, the widest margin in the sample.
👀 What to Watch
Frosinone’s full-backs push high, which leaves space behind them. Bellanova and Zappacosta can exploit that if Atalanta win the ball early. In return, Grillitsch will look to bypass the Atalanta press with direct balls into the space behind Kessié and Éderson.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Atalanta a 60% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 16% for Frosinone. Expected goals: 1.7–0.8. Frosinone’s road record is the clearest factor here, and Atalanta’s home win over Venezia hints at a side that settles in Bergamo. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Atalanta 1-0 Frosinone
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Gewiss Stadium
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Atalanta vs Frosinone?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Atalanta vs Frosinone being played?
- Venue: Gewiss Stadium
- How can I watch Atalanta vs Frosinone?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Atalanta and Frosinone?
- Atalanta won 5-0 in Bergamo on 15 January 2024.
- What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Frosinone?
- Atalanta 1-0 Frosinone. Frosinone have no win from their 2 away games, and Atalanta are stronger at home.