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Match Prediction
Sevilla win
Draw
Osasuna win
Sevilla or draw
Osasuna or draw
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.1 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:52 UTC · Track record
Sixth Hosts Tenth on Monday Night
Sevilla go into the round sixth on 14 points from nine games. That puts them three points and four places above Osasuna, who sit 10th on 11. This last fixture of Matchday 10 brings together a home side without a win in three and a visiting team that has just won for the only time in its last five.
The State of Sevilla
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Sevilla’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Real Madrid | Away | L 1-4 | Primera Division |
| 12 Oct | Levante | Away | D 3-3 | Primera Division |
| 19 Sep | Barcelona | Home | L 1-3 | Primera Division |
| 16 Sep | Deportivo | Away | W 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 11 Sep | Valencia | Home | W 1-0 | Primera Division |
The recent fixture list has been brutal. Sevilla lost 1-4 away at Real Madrid, and before that they lost 1-3 at home to Barcelona. Their record over five games is 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost, with 7 scored and 10 conceded. They have scored in every one of those games. Their problem is at the back. Both clean sheets came in 1-0 wins, which shows how Luís García’s side looks when it stays compact. Lucien Agoume and Youssouf Fofana have to give that shape in midfield, and Odisseas Vlachodimos has been busier than any goalkeeper would like. Juan Iglesias and Jose Angel Carmona give width from full-back, but every time they push on, space opens behind them.
The State of Osasuna
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Osasuna’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Racing Santander | Home | W 2-0 | Primera Division |
| 11 Oct | Real Betis | Away | L 2-5 | Primera Division |
| 19 Sep | Rayo Vallecano | Home | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 16 Sep | Atletico Madrid | Away | L 0-4 | Primera Division |
| 12 Sep | Espanyol | Home | L 0-2 | Primera Division |
Osasuna’s record is 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost, with 5 scored and 12 conceded. They failed to score in two of those games. Away from Pamplona the damage is worse: they lost 0-4 away at Atletico Madrid and 2-5 away at Real Betis. The 2-0 win at home to Racing Santander was their only clean sheet in the run. Luis Ramis needs his midfield of Jon Moncayola and Lucas Torró to stay tight in front of Catena. Aimar Oroz remains the player most likely to unlock a defence on the counter.
Head-to-Head
Osasuna have the edge: 4 wins to Sevilla’s 1, with 4 draws, across the last nine meetings. The latest was a 2-1 Osasuna win at their own ground in La Liga on 26 April 2026. Sevilla’s only win in this sample was 1-0 at home on 8 November 2025. Six of the nine meetings had two goals or fewer, and no win was by more than one goal.
👀 What to Watch
Oroz against Agoume is the key duel. Sevilla’s back line has leaked goals against strong attacks. Osasuna will sit deep and look for Oroz between the lines when Iglesias and Carmona push forward. If Agoume screens him, Osasuna’s poor away scoring returns quickly.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Sevilla a 45% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 27% for Osasuna. Expected goals: 1.4–1.1. Sevilla’s home advantage and Osasuna’s two heavy away defeats support the lean to the hosts. The tight history of this fixture explains why the margin stays small. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.1%, but with the win probabilities favouring Sevilla we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Sevilla 1-0 Osasuna
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Monday 26 October 2026, 20:00 UTC / 21:00 CET (Mon 26 Oct) / 4:00 PM EDT (Mon 26 Oct) / 20:00 GMT (Mon 26 Oct)
- Venue: Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
- Competition: La Liga, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
FAQ
- What time is Sevilla vs Osasuna?
- Kickoff: Monday 26 October 2026, 20:00 UTC / 21:00 CET (Mon 26 Oct) / 4:00 PM EDT (Mon 26 Oct) / 20:00 GMT (Mon 26 Oct)
- Where is Sevilla vs Osasuna being played?
- Venue: Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
- How can I watch Sevilla vs Osasuna?
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Sevilla and Osasuna?
- Osasuna won 2-1 at their own ground in La Liga on 26 April 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
- Our prediction is Sevilla 1-0 Osasuna. Sevilla have home advantage, and Osasuna lost both of their recent away games heavily, but this fixture is usually decided by one goal.