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Match Prediction
Fortuna Sittard win
Draw
Excelsior win
Fortuna Sittard or draw
Excelsior or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:45 UTC · Track record
Sixth Hosts Tenth in Sittard
Fortuna Sittard go into Matchday 10 sixth on 15 points from nine games. Excelsior sit 10th on 11 points, so four places and four points separate them. Danny Buijs’s side want to stay in touch with the clubs above them. Ruben den Uil’s Excelsior need to stop a defensive collapse before it defines their autumn.
The State of Fortuna Sittard
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Fortuna Sittard’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | NEC | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 10 Oct | Twente | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Willem II | Away | W 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Ajax | Home | L 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | ADO Den Haag | Away | W 3-2 | Eredivisie |
Fortuna are unbeaten in three but have not won in two, after drawing 2-2 away at NEC in the Eredivisie. Where the points come from is odd. In their last five, they took two wins and a draw from three away trips but only one point from two home games. The low point was a 1-5 defeat at home to Ajax. They scored in all five of those games, 8 goals in total, but conceded 10 and kept one clean sheet. This is a side that scores freely and gives up chances just as freely. Home form is the problem they need to fix, and a struggling visitor is the right opponent to fix it against.
The State of Excelsior
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Excelsior’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Heerenveen | Away | L 0-4 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Oct | Groningen | Home | L 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Ajax | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 13 Sep | Utrecht | Home | L 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| 8 Sep | NEC | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
Excelsior are without a win in five and have lost two in a row: 1-5 at home to Groningen, then 0-4 away at Heerenveen, both in the Eredivisie. Over the five games they conceded 15 and kept no clean sheet. There is still something to work with. A 2-2 draw away at Ajax showed the Rotterdam side can hurt a team that leaves space behind. But nine goals conceded in two games points to a back line that is not holding its shape.
Head-to-Head
Fortuna have won all three meetings they hosted in this sample. The latest was a 2-1 Eredivisie win in Sittard on 20 February 2026, and the run also includes a 5-2 win on 3 March 2024. Excelsior won 1-0 on their own ground on 19 October 2025. They have scored in five of the six meetings shown, so a Fortuna clean sheet is far from guaranteed.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is how Excelsior set up after shipping nine goals in two games. If den Uil drops his side deeper, Fortuna must break down a compact block at home. Their recent results suggest they look sharper away from home, where they get more space on the counter. If Excelsior stay open instead, the space their 2-2 at Ajax showed they can exploit is there at the other end, and this could quickly turn into a shootout.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Fortuna Sittard a 48% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 25% for Excelsior. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Fortuna’s perfect home record against this opponent in the sample and Excelsior’s defensive slump drive that lean. Fortuna’s own uneven home form keeps the draw firmly in play. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.9%, but with the win probabilities favouring Fortuna we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:15 UTC / 12:15 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 11:15 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 7:15 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:15 UTC / 12:15 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 11:15 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 7:15 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior being played?
- Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion
- How can I watch Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
- Who won the last meeting between Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior?
- Fortuna Sittard won the last meeting 2-1 at home on 20 February 2026 in the Eredivisie.
- What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
- We predict Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior. Fortuna have won all three recent meetings they hosted, and Excelsior arrive on two straight defeats with 15 goals conceded in their last five games.