Alavés vs Málaga Prediction: La Liga Matchday 10 2026

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Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 19:17 UTC · Track record

Two Winless Sides Open Matchday 10

Matchday 10 opens in Vitoria with two clubs who have not won in their last five. Alavés go into the round 7th on 11 points from 9 games, while Málaga prop up the table in 20th on 4 points. Thirteen places and seven points separate them, and for the bottom side, Mendizorroza is a place where points have to start arriving.

The State of Alavés

Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Alavés’s goals first):

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Competition
18 Oct	Celta Vigo	Away	L 1-2	Primera Division
10 Oct	Atletico Madrid	Home	L 1-2	Primera Division
19 Sep	Athletic Bilbao	Away	D 0-0	Primera Division
15 Sep	Valencia	Home	L 0-1	Primera Division
12 Sep	Racing Santander	Away	L 1-2	Primera Division

The league position flatters the recent run. Quique Sanchez Flores’ side have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last five, with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded, and they arrive on two defeats in a row. The margins have been fine: they lost 1-2 at home to Atletico Madrid, then lost 1-2 away at Celta Vigo. The 0-0 away at Athletic Bilbao showed what this team does well. It is a compact, disciplined block that makes opponents work for every opening.

The problem is at the other end. Alavés failed to score in two of those five games, and both home matches in the run ended in defeat. Against a visiting side that will likely sit deep, the home side must carry the ball and break down a low block. That is not their most comfortable setting.

The State of Málaga

Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Málaga’s goals first):

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Competition
18 Oct	Real Sociedad	Home	L 2-5	Primera Division
9 Oct	Espanyol	Home	D 1-1	Primera Division
20 Sep	Getafe	Away	L 0-1	Primera Division
17 Sep	Villarreal	Home	L 1-3	Primera Division
13 Sep	Celta Vigo	Away	D 1-1	Primera Division

Juan Funes’ side bring 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last five, with 5 goals scored, 11 conceded and no clean sheet. The alarm bell was a 2-5 defeat at home to Real Sociedad, a result that exposed how open the back line becomes once a game stretches. There is some resistance in them: they drew 1-1 at home to Espanyol and drew 1-1 away at Celta Vigo. They have also scored in four of their last five, so they rarely leave a match with nothing to show in attack. The issue is protecting what they create.

Head-to-Head

Alavés and Málaga have met many times across Spain’s top two divisions, but current form says far more about this match than any old result.

👀 What to Watch

The central question is simple: can a blunt Alavés attack punish a Málaga defence that keeps leaking goals? If the home side score early, Málaga must come out, and that suits a team built to defend space and hit on the break.

The second thread is Málaga’s response to the Real Sociedad defeat. Expect Funes to prioritise shape over adventure. If the visitors keep it level past the hour, the pressure shifts onto an Alavés side that has struggled to chase games at home.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Alavés a 52% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 22% for Málaga. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9.

1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.6%, but with the win probabilities favouring Alavés we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. Málaga’s open defence gives the home side chances, yet Alavés’ recent lack of goals points to a narrow margin rather than a rout. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Alavés 1-0 Málaga

Practical Info

• Kickoff: Friday 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Fri 23 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Fri 23 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Fri 23 Oct)
• Venue: Mendizorroza
• Competition: La Liga, Matchday 10
• Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)

FAQ

What time is Alavés vs Málaga?

Kickoff: Friday 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Fri 23 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Fri 23 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Fri 23 Oct)

Where is Alavés vs Málaga being played?

Venue: Mendizorroza

How can I watch Alavés vs Málaga on TV?

Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)

What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Málaga?

Our prediction is Alavés 1-0 Málaga. Málaga concede often, but Alavés have struggled for goals recently, so a narrow home win is the likeliest winning margin.

Where do Alavés and Málaga stand in La Liga?

Before Matchday 10, Alavés are 7th on 11 points from 9 games and Málaga are 20th on 4 points from 9 games, seven points behind.