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Match Prediction
Ipswich win
Draw
Nottingham Forest win
Ipswich or draw
Nottingham Forest or draw
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.4 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 01:36 UTC · Track record
Forest Arrive at Portman Road Needing Points
Friday night at Portman Road opens Matchday 8. It pairs a side holding its own in the top half with one sliding toward the bottom three. Ipswich go into the round 10th on 9 points from 7 games, nine places and four points clear of a Nottingham Forest side that sits 19th and arrives on three straight defeats.
The State of Ipswich
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Ipswich’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Manchester City | Away | L 2-3 | Premier League |
| 10 Oct | Fulham | Home | W 2-1 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Everton | Away | L 0-1 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Crystal Palace | Away | W 3-2 | Premier League |
| 4 Sep | Liverpool | Home | L 0-2 | Premier League |
Gary O’Neil’s side rarely play a quiet game. They have kept no clean sheets in their last five, conceding 9 and scoring 7, so their matches tend to be decided by who scores more rather than who concedes less. The 2-3 defeat away at Manchester City showed the upside of that approach: Ipswich stayed in the contest against the league leaders right to the end. The game before that was a 2-1 win at home to Fulham, the type of result a newly established top-flight side needs to bank at Portman Road.
The weakness is just as clear. Both of their two blanks in this run, against Everton and Liverpool, ended in defeat, and the home record across these five is one win and one loss. When Ipswich cannot get their front line into the game, they have not yet shown they can grind out a point.
The State of Nottingham Forest
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Nottingham Forest’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Arsenal | Home | L 0-1 | Premier League |
| 11 Oct | Crystal Palace | Away | L 1-3 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Coventry City | Home | L 0-1 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Aston Villa | Away | W 2-1 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Tottenham | Home | D 0-0 | Premier League |
Oliver Glasner’s Forest have a goals problem. They have scored 3 times in five games and failed to score in three of them. The 0-1 defeat at home to Arsenal was respectable on its own, but it followed a 1-3 loss away at Crystal Palace and a 0-1 home defeat to Coventry City, the result that will sting most.
The one encouraging sign is on the road. Forest’s only win in this run came 2-1 away at Aston Villa, and they are winless at home across these five. Glasner’s teams are usually built on a compact back line, wing-backs who carry the width and quick breaks once the ball is won. A home side that likes to push forward could give Forest exactly the space they have struggled to find at the City Ground.
Head-to-Head
Forest won both of the recent meetings. On 30 November 2024 they won 1-0 at the City Ground, and on 15 March 2025 they won 2-4 at Portman Road. That second game is the warning for Ipswich: the last time Forest came here, they scored four.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Ipswich’s open defending against Forest’s blunt attack. Forest’s season will turn on whether they can rediscover goals, and a back line that has kept no clean sheets in five games is the sort of opponent that can help. If Ipswich push their full-backs on, Forest’s wing-backs will have room to break into.
The other question is Ipswich’s patience. If Forest sit deep and protect a 0-0, can the home side create enough chances without leaving gaps behind them? Their two blanks in this run suggest that breaking down a set defence is still a work in progress.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Ipswich a 27% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 45% for Nottingham Forest. Expected goals: 1.1–1.4. The model leans on Forest’s two head-to-head wins and Ipswich’s failure to keep a clean sheet, rather than on Forest’s recent results. That reading of form looks generous to the visitors, given three defeats in a row. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.2%, but with the win probabilities favouring Forest we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Ipswich 0-1 Nottingham Forest
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Friday 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 20:00 BST (Fri 23 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Fri 23 Oct) / 21:00 CEST (Fri 23 Oct)
- Venue: Portman Road
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest?
- Kickoff: Friday 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 20:00 BST (Fri 23 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Fri 23 Oct) / 21:00 CEST (Fri 23 Oct)
- Where is Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest being played?
- Venue: Portman Road
- How can I watch Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Ipswich and Nottingham Forest?
- Nottingham Forest won 2-4 at Portman Road on 15 March 2025. Forest also won the meeting before that 1-0 at the City Ground on 30 November 2024.
- What is the predicted score for Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest?
- Our prediction is Ipswich 0-1 Nottingham Forest. Forest have won both recent meetings and Ipswich have not kept a clean sheet in their last five games.