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Match Prediction
Brest win
Draw
Nice win
Brest or draw
Nice or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Track record
One Point Splits Two Mid-Table Clubs
Friday night at Stade Francis-Le Blé opens Matchday 8. It pits two clubs stuck in the crowded middle of Ligue 1. Brest go into the round 10th on 9 points from 7 games, one point and three places ahead of Nice in 13th, so the winner pulls clear of a direct rival before anyone else plays.
The State of Brest
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Brest’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Lille | Away | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 10 Oct | Angers | Home | W 5-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 20 Sep | Auxerre | Away | L 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 13 Sep | PSG | Home | L 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 5 Sep | Le Havre | Away | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
Brest’s record over the last five reads 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost, but the recent direction is good. They won 5-1 at home to Angers in Ligue 1, then drew 1-1 away at Lille. That leaves them unbeaten in the last 2. The worry is at the back: 9 scored and 6 conceded across those five, with no clean sheet. This is still the club that reached the Champions League in 2024/25, and the identity has not changed much. Brest press high, attack quickly from wide areas and commit numbers to the box. Home form has been mixed, with 1 win and 1 loss from two games here, the defeat coming against PSG.
The State of Nice
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Nice’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Lyon | Away | L 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Oct | Strasbourg | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 20 Sep | Lille | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Auxerre | Away | L 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 5 Sep | Le Mans | Home | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
Nice under Olivier Pantaloni carry the same 2-1-2 record, but the split by venue is stark. At home they have 2 wins and 1 draw. Away they have lost both, most recently 1-2 away at Lyon in Ligue 1. Before that came a 2-1 win at home to Strasbourg. With 6 scored and 6 conceded over five games, Nice play tighter, lower-scoring matches than Brest and rely on control of the ball. The issue is turning that control into goals on the road, where they have scored in neither defeat’s winning margin.
Head-to-Head
Nice lead the last ten meetings with 5 wins to Brest’s 2, plus 3 draws. The recent games have been anything but tight. The most recent meeting, on 1 February 2026, finished Nice 2-2 Brest at Nice’s ground. Before that, Brest won 4-1 at home on 20 September 2025, only months after Nice’s 6-0 home win on 17 May 2025. At this venue the record is level: Brest 2 wins, Nice 2, and 1 draw.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Brest’s front-foot start against a Nice side that has not won away in this run. Brest’s best spells come early, when their press forces turnovers high up the pitch. Nice need patient build-up to slow the game and quiet the home crowd. If they lose the ball cheaply in their own half, the Angers result shows how quickly Brest can punish it. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in its last five, so the first goal matters a great deal.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Brest a 49% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 24% for Nice. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Home advantage, Brest’s recent scoring and Nice’s two away defeats drive that lean. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.9%, but with the win probabilities favouring Brest we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Brest 1-0 Nice
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Friday 23 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Fri 23 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Fri 23 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Fri 23 Oct)
- Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé
- Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Brest vs Nice?
- Kickoff: Friday 23 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Fri 23 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Fri 23 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Fri 23 Oct)
- Where is Brest vs Nice being played?
- Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé
- Who won the last meeting between Brest and Nice?
- Nobody. The most recent meeting, on 1 February 2026 at Nice's ground, ended Nice 2-2 Brest.
- What is the predicted score for Brest vs Nice?
- Our prediction is Brest 1-0 Nice. Brest's home advantage and Nice's two away defeats in their last five tilt the game towards the hosts.
- Where can I watch Brest vs Nice?
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)