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Match Prediction
Derby win
Draw
Stoke win
Derby or draw
Stoke or draw
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.1 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:29 UTC · Track record
Derby’s Slump Meets Stoke’s Climb
Derby go into the round 23rd in the Championship on 6 points from 10 games. Stoke arrive 8th on 16 points, so 15 places and 10 points separate the two clubs. John Eustace’s side are without a win in their last five, and this home game against a top-half rival closes Matchday 11.
The State of Derby
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Derby’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | QPR | Away | L 1-4 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Wrexham | Home | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Burnley | Away | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Birmingham | Home | L 1-2 | Championship |
| 9 Sep | West Brom | Home | L 0-1 | Championship |
The latest result was the most damaging: a 1-4 defeat away at QPR in the Championship. Before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Wrexham. Across the five listed games Derby have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 4 scored, 9 conceded and no clean sheets. Pride Park has given them no protection, with one draw and two defeats in three home games. The goals against are the bigger problem. Derby scored in four of the five games, so they can create chances. The urgent job is to stop conceding them.
The State of Stoke
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Stoke’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Middlesbrough | Home | L 2-3 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Bolton | Away | W 2-1 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Sheffield United | Home | W 2-1 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Watford | Away | W 2-1 | Championship |
| 8 Sep | Cardiff | Away | D 1-1 | Championship |
Mark Robins has Stoke hard to beat on the road: two wins and a draw in three away games, including a 2-1 win away at Bolton in the Championship. The run then ended with a 2-3 defeat at home to Middlesbrough, a game that showed both sides of this team. Stoke scored in all five listed games, 9 goals in total, but conceded 7 and kept no clean sheets. They won 3 of the 5, every one of them 2-1. That is the form of a side close to the top six, but the margins are thin.
Head-to-Head
Of the nine meetings listed, Derby won four, Stoke three, and two were draws. The venue matters: Stoke have not won any of the five games at Derby, with three Derby wins and two draws. The most recent meeting, on 6 April 2026, ended Derby 2-0 Stoke at Pride Park. The one before it went the other way, Stoke 3-1 Derby at Stoke’s ground in August 2025.
👀 What to Watch
Stoke have failed to score in the last two meetings at Pride Park, a 0-0 in May 2025 and the 2-0 defeat in April 2026. That record now runs into a Stoke attack that has scored in every listed game this autumn. The other side of it: Stoke have not kept a clean sheet in five, and Derby have scored in four of their five. If Derby can keep the game level into the second half, the home crowd becomes a factor. If they concede early, the QPR result shows how quickly things can unravel.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Derby a 44% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 28% for Stoke. Expected goals: 1.4–1.1. The home edge comes mostly from the head-to-head record at Pride Park, where Stoke have not won in five visits, rather than from Derby’s recent form. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.2%, but with the win probabilities favouring Derby we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. On form alone, Stoke look stronger than the model suggests. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Derby 1-0 Stoke
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Pride Park Stadium
- Competition: Championship, Matchday 11
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
FAQ
- What time is Derby vs Stoke?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Derby vs Stoke being played?
- Venue: Pride Park Stadium
- How can I watch Derby vs Stoke on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Derby and Stoke?
- Derby won the most recent meeting 2-0 at Pride Park on 6 April 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Derby vs Stoke?
- Our prediction is Derby 1-0 Stoke. Stoke have not won in five visits to Derby in the listed meetings, and that home edge tips a close game.