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Match Prediction
Roma win
Draw
Genoa win
Roma or draw
Genoa or draw
Expected goals: 1.9 – 0.6 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:26 UTC · Track record
De Rossi Returns to Face Gasperini’s Roma
Roma go into this round third in Serie A on 14 points from six games. Genoa sit 17th on 4 points. Before this round, that puts the clubs 14 places and 10 points apart. The extra storyline is on the visiting bench. Daniele De Rossi captained Roma and later coached them, and now he brings Genoa to the Olimpico needing points to climb away from the bottom.
The State of Roma
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Roma’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Real Madrid | Home | L 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| 11 Oct | Como | Away | D 0-0 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Inter Milan | Home | D 2-2 | Serie A |
| 14 Sep | Torino | Away | W 2-0 | Serie A |
| 10 Sep | Fenerbahçe | Away | D 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
Gian Piero Gasperini’s side come into this game without a win in their last three. The most recent of those was a 3-4 defeat at home to Real Madrid in the Champions League, three days before this kickoff. Before that came a 0-0 draw away at Como in Serie A. Over the five games, Roma have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded.
The identity is pure Gasperini. Roma defend man for man all over the pitch, push the wing-backs high and attack the box with runners from deep. That style needs fresh legs. After the Madrid game, the big question is how much the home side rotate, and whether the press still has its usual bite.
The State of Genoa
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Genoa’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Fiorentina | Home | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Parma | Away | L 1-2 | Serie A |
| 12 Sep | Frosinone | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 4 Sep | Como | Home | L 1-4 | Serie A |
| 30 Aug | Lazio | Away | L 0-1 | Serie A |
Genoa’s five games produced 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 5 goals scored and 9 conceded and no clean sheet. The lift came in their latest game, a 2-1 win at home to Fiorentina in Serie A. Away from home, the picture is bleak. They lost 1-2 away at Parma and 0-1 away at Lazio, and those are the only two away games in their form.
De Rossi’s Genoa want to keep the ball and play through the lines. Against a team that presses this hard, that plan carries real risk around their own box.
Head-to-Head
Roma lead the last nine meetings with 5 wins to Genoa’s 2, plus 2 draws. In Rome, the record is even more one-sided. Roma have won four of the five meetings they hosted, drawn the other, and never lost. The most recent meeting went Genoa’s way: Genoa 2-1 Roma at Genoa’s ground on 8 March 2026. Before that, Roma beat Genoa 3-1 at the Olimpico on 29 December 2025.
👀 What to Watch
The key duel is Genoa’s build-up against Roma’s man-oriented press. If Genoa’s centre-backs and holding midfielder can beat the first wave, there is space behind Roma’s high wing-backs. If they can’t, turnovers near Genoa’s box will decide the game. De Rossi also knows this club and this stadium better than almost anyone. Watch whether Genoa sit deeper than usual to make Roma’s tired legs work for every chance.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Roma a 69% chance of winning, 21% for a draw and 10% for Genoa. Expected goals: 1.9–0.6. Roma’s unbeaten home record against Genoa in this sample and Genoa’s failure to keep a clean sheet both point one way. Fatigue after the Madrid game is the main reason to expect a tight margin rather than a rout. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Roma 1-0 Genoa
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Roma vs Genoa?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Roma vs Genoa being played?
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico
- Where can I watch Roma vs Genoa on TV?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Roma and Genoa?
- Genoa won the most recent meeting 2-1 at their own ground on 8 March 2026. Before that, Roma won 3-1 at the Olimpico on 29 December 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Roma vs Genoa?
- We predict Roma 1-0 Genoa. Roma have never lost to Genoa at home in the last nine meetings, but fatigue after their Champions League game against Real Madrid points to a narrow margin.