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Match Prediction
Newcastle win
Draw
Aston Villa win
Newcastle or draw
Aston Villa or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:23 UTC · Track record
Villa Arrive Low in the Table
Newcastle go into the round 11th on 8 points from 6 games. Aston Villa sit 16th on 5 points from 6, which leaves them 5 places and 3 points behind their hosts. Villa have just put six past Fenerbahçe in the Champions League, while Newcastle were beaten 1-4 at Coventry City. That contrast is what makes Saturday at St James’ Park so hard to call.
The State of Newcastle
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Newcastle’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Coventry City | Away | L 1-4 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Hull City | Home | W 2-1 | Premier League |
| 14 Sep | Leeds | Away | L 1-4 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Bournemouth | Home | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 29 Aug | Tottenham | Away | W 2-0 | Premier League |
Matthias Jaissle’s side have a split personality. Their record over the last five reads 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost, with 8 scored and 11 conceded. The defeats were both heavy and both on the road: lost 1-4 away at Leeds and lost 1-4 away at Coventry City in the Premier League. At home they are unbeaten across two games (1 won, 1 drawn), and they have scored in every one of the five.
The problem is the back line once the game opens up. Newcastle want to win the ball high and play fast. When that pressure is broken, they have been exposed in transition. St James’ Park gives them the energy to keep the press going for longer, and that is their best route back into form.
The State of Aston Villa
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Aston Villa’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Fenerbahçe | Home | W 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Brentford | Home | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Tottenham | Away | W 3-2 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Nottingham Forest | Home | L 1-2 | Premier League |
| 8 Sep | Club Brugge | Away | W 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
Unai Emery’s team look like two different sides depending on the competition. In all competitions they are 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost, with 15 scored and 8 conceded, and they are unbeaten in their last three. That run includes a 3-2 win away at Tottenham in the Premier League and the 6-0 win at home to Fenerbahçe in the Champions League.
The league table tells a harsher story. A 1-2 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest and a 2-2 draw at home to Brentford have left Villa in the bottom half. Away from Villa Park, though, they have won both games in this sample. Emery’s sides defend compactly and hold a high line, so a disciplined start away from home suits them.
Head-to-Head
Across the last nine meetings, Newcastle lead with 5 wins to Villa’s 3, plus 1 draw. At St James’ Park the home side have won 4 of 5. The exception is the most recent meeting: Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa on 25 January 2026 in the Premier League. Villa are unbeaten in the last three meetings, and Newcastle have not scored in the last two.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Newcastle’s press against Villa’s high defensive line. If Newcastle win the ball high, they can attack the space behind Villa’s defence. If Villa play through the first wave, Newcastle’s away pattern suggests they can be opened up.
Fatigue also matters. Villa played on Wednesday night in Europe and kick off on Saturday afternoon. How much Emery rotates could decide whether Newcastle’s intensity counts late on.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Newcastle a 32% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 40% for Aston Villa. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. Villa’s recent dominance of this fixture and Newcastle’s defensive frailty tilt the read toward the visitors, even with Newcastle’s strong home record. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Villa we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC / 17:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 12:30 PM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 18:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: St James' Park
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC / 17:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 12:30 PM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 18:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Newcastle vs Aston Villa being played?
- Venue: St James' Park
- Who won the last meeting between Newcastle and Aston Villa?
- Aston Villa won 2-0 at St James' Park on 25 January 2026 in the Premier League.
- How can I watch Newcastle vs Aston Villa on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
- Our prediction is Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa. Villa are unbeaten in the last three meetings, and Newcastle have conceded heavily in recent defeats.