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Match Prediction
Lyon win
Draw
Nice win
Lyon or draw
Nice or draw
Expected goals: 1.8 – 0.7 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:05 UTC · Track record
Lyon Need a Response After Lens
Lyon close Matchday 7 at Groupama Stadium in 4th on 11 points from six games before the round began. Nice sit 9th, three points and five places behind. Paulo Fonseca’s side need an answer to their defeat at Lens. Nice arrive on two straight wins, but their last two road trips both ended in defeat.
The State of Lyon
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Lyon’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Lens | Away | L 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Rennes | Home | W 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Paris FC | Away | D 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 4 Sep | Auxerre | Home | W 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 29 Aug | Le Havre | Home | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
The 1-2 loss away at Lens was Lyon’s only defeat in this five-game run. It broke a solid stretch: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost, with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded. The standout was the 4-0 win at home to Rennes, when Lyon were ruthless in front of goal. They also kept two clean sheets in the run.
Home is where this team looks most convincing. In three games at Groupama Stadium they have 2 wins and 1 draw. Fonseca wants his side to keep the ball, push the full-backs high and win it back quickly. That approach works best when the crowd lifts the tempo and the opponent sits deep.
The State of Nice
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Nice’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Strasbourg | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 20 Sep | Lille | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Auxerre | Away | L 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 5 Sep | Le Mans | Home | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 30 Aug | Paris FC | Away | L 0-3 | Ligue 1 |
Olivier Pantaloni’s Nice have found their feet at the Allianz Riviera. They won 2-1 at home to Strasbourg and 2-1 at home to Lille, and they are unbeaten in their last 2. The road is a different story. They lost 0-3 away at Paris FC and 0-1 away at Auxerre, failing to score in either game.
The defensive numbers are the worry. Nice kept 0 clean sheets in their last five and conceded 7 goals while scoring 5. Against a Lyon side that scores freely at home, that is a real problem.
Head-to-Head
Lyon lead the last ten meetings with 5 wins to Nice’s 3, with 2 draws. At Lyon’s ground the gap is wider: Lyon won 4 and drew 1, and Nice did not win once. The most recent meeting, a Ligue 1 game on 15 February 2026, ended Lyon 2-0 Nice. Nice did win the one before it, 3-2 at home on 18 October 2025, so this fixture can open up.
👀 What to Watch
Nice’s away attack is the key question. Pantaloni is likely to sit compact and play for transitions, as he did not get much from the trips to Paris FC and Auxerre. Lyon must break that block without leaving space behind their high full-backs. If Lyon score first, Nice have to come out, and that suits the hosts.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Lyon a 61% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 15% for Nice. Expected goals: 1.8–0.7. Lyon’s unbeaten home record against Nice and the visitors’ blank away trips drive that read. Nice’s wins at home show they can compete, which keeps the margin tight. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Lyon 1-0 Nice
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Groupama Stadium
- Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Lyon vs Nice?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Lyon vs Nice being played?
- Venue: Groupama Stadium
- How can I watch Lyon vs Nice?
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Lyon and Nice?
- Lyon won the last meeting 2-0 at home in Ligue 1 on 15 February 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Nice?
- Our prediction is Lyon 1-0 Nice. Lyon are unbeaten at home against Nice in the last five meetings there, and Nice lost both of their recent away games without scoring.