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Match Prediction
Brighton win
Draw
Crystal Palace win
Brighton or draw
Crystal Palace or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:57 UTC · Track record
Third Place Meets an Old Grudge
Brighton go into Matchday 7 third in the Premier League with 13 points from six games. They sit nine places and six points clear of Crystal Palace, who are 12th on 7 points. That gap counts for little in the M23 derby, a fixture Palace have owned lately.
The State of Brighton
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Brighton’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Sunderland | Away | W 2-0 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Arsenal | Home | W 3-0 | Premier League |
| 13 Sep | Coventry City | Away | W 5-0 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Leeds | Home | D 1-1 | Premier League |
| 30 Aug | Chelsea | Away | L 3-4 | Premier League |
Fabian Hürzeler’s side are on a run of three straight wins and are unbeaten in four. The statement result was the 3-0 win at home to Arsenal in the Premier League, and the 5-0 win away at Coventry City showed how hard they can punish a side. Across the five games they scored 14 goals and kept three clean sheets. The defeat came in a 3-4 loss away at Chelsea, a game that showed the risk in how high they play. Brighton press high, push the full-backs forward and build patiently from the back. When the press works, opponents rarely get out of their own half.
The State of Crystal Palace
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Crystal Palace’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Nottingham Forest | Home | W 3-1 | Premier League |
| 20 Sep | Leeds | Away | D 0-0 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Ipswich | Home | L 2-3 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Fulham | Away | W 3-2 | Premier League |
| 28 Aug | Manchester City | Home | L 1-4 | Premier League |
Pierre Sage’s Palace are harder to read. They have two wins, one draw and two defeats in five, with 9 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their home form has been the problem: they lost 2-3 at home to Ipswich and 1-4 at home to Manchester City. On the road they are unbeaten in two games, with a win and a draw. They come into this game after a 3-1 win at home to Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Palace are most dangerous in transition, with quick, direct breaks into the space a high line leaves behind.
Head-to-Head
Brighton have not beaten Palace in the last four meetings. Palace won 1-0 at the Amex on 8 February 2026 and 3-1 there in December 2024. Across the last ten meetings, Palace have won three, Brighton two, and five ended level. Seven of those ten games had two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The question is whether Brighton’s press can stop Palace’s counter before it starts. Palace have twice won at the Amex by staying compact and attacking the space behind Brighton’s full-backs. If Brighton win the ball high, they can repeat the control they showed against Arsenal. If Palace get through the first wave, the chaos of the Chelsea game is the warning.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Brighton a 53% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 21% for Crystal Palace. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9. Brighton’s home form and their three recent clean sheets drive that read. Palace’s results at the Amex and the low scores in this fixture point to a tight game. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Brighton 1-0 Crystal Palace
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 14:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 15:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: American Express Stadium
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 14:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 15:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Brighton vs Crystal Palace being played?
- Venue: American Express Stadium
- How can I watch Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Brighton and Crystal Palace?
- Crystal Palace won 1-0 at the Amex on 8 February 2026. Brighton have not beaten Palace in the last four meetings.
- What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
- Our prediction is Brighton 1-0 Crystal Palace. Brighton's home form and clean sheets give them the edge, but this fixture is usually low scoring.