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Match Prediction
Elversberg win
Draw
Augsburg win
Elversberg or draw
Augsburg or draw
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.4 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:51 UTC · Track record
Ninth Hosts Sixth at the Kaiserlinde
Elversberg go into the round ninth on 7 points from 5 games, and Augsburg sit sixth on 8 points. One point and three places separate them. Neither club has won in three, so this Matchday 6 meeting in Saarland is about which of them stops the slide before the upper half of the table pulls away.
The State of Elversberg
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Elversberg’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Union Berlin | Away | L 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | Schalke | Away | D 0-0 | Bundesliga |
| 13 Sep | Bayern Munich | Home | L 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Mönchengladbach | Away | W 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Aug | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | W 3-2 | Bundesliga |
Vincent Wagner’s side opened the season with real nerve: they won 3-2 at home to Bayer Leverkusen, then won 4-3 away at Mönchengladbach. Since then the goals have dried up. Over five games the record is 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost, with 8 scored and 8 conceded, but two of those games ended without an Elversberg goal and they are without a win in the last 3.
The defence has held up better than the attack. A goalless draw at Schalke and a single-goal defeat at Union Berlin point to a team that has grown tighter but lost its edge in the final third. The home record over this run is 1 won, 1 lost. The Leverkusen win showed what this side can do at the Kaiserlinde when it plays on the front foot. It needs that version back.
The State of Augsburg
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Augsburg’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Bayern Munich | Home | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Werder Bremen | Away | L 2-3 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 6 Sep | Frankfurt | Away | W 4-1 | Bundesliga |
| 30 Aug | Schalke | Home | W 3-0 | Bundesliga |
Manuel Baum’s Augsburg arrive with the sharper attack: 13 scored, 8 conceded, and not one of their five games has ended without an Augsburg goal. The standout was a 4-1 win away at Frankfurt. The most recent result, a 2-2 draw at home to Bayern Munich, showed they can hold their own against the division’s heavyweights.
The worry is at the other end. Augsburg have conceded in clusters, and they are also without a win in the last 3. Away from home they have won 1 and lost 1 over this stretch.
Head-to-Head
There is little recent shared history between these clubs to draw on, so current form carries the weight here.
👀 What to Watch
The common opponents tell the story. Against Schalke, Elversberg could only draw 0-0 on the road, while Augsburg won 3-0 at home. Against Leverkusen, Elversberg won and Augsburg drew. Elversberg have the higher ceiling on their best day, but Augsburg have scored more reliably.
The key question is whether Elversberg can rebuild the attacking intent of their opening weeks without opening the door. Augsburg have scored in every game of this run, and they will look to punish any loose possession in midfield on the break.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Elversberg a 30% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 42% for Augsburg. Expected goals: 1.1–1.4.
Augsburg’s steadier scoring and Elversberg’s goal drought over their last three tilt this towards the visitors. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.3%, but with the win probabilities favouring Augsburg we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Elversberg 0-1 Augsburg
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 6
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Elversberg vs Augsburg?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Elversberg vs Augsburg being played?
- Venue: Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
- How can I watch Elversberg vs Augsburg?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- Where are Elversberg and Augsburg in the Bundesliga table?
- Before this round, Augsburg were sixth on 8 points and Elversberg ninth on 7 points, both from 5 games.
- What is the predicted score for Elversberg vs Augsburg?
- Our prediction is Elversberg 0-1 Augsburg. Augsburg have scored in each of their last five games, while Elversberg have failed to score in two of theirs.