Le Mans vs Toulouse Prediction: Ligue 1 Preview 2026

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Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:48 UTC · Track record

Level on Points, Opening the Round

Matchday 7 of Ligue 1 starts at MMArena with two clubs that cannot be split on points. Le Mans go into the round 14th and Toulouse 15th, both on 6 points from 6 games, with Le Mans ahead only on the tiebreak. This Friday night game kicks off before the other eight fixtures, so the winner takes three points into a weekend when nobody else has played yet.

The State of Le Mans

Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Le Mans’s goals first):

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Competition
10 Oct	PSG	Away	L 1-3	Ligue 1
19 Sep	Lorient	Home	W 2-1	Ligue 1
13 Sep	Lens	Home	D 2-2	Ligue 1
5 Sep	Nice	Away	D 1-1	Ligue 1
30 Aug	Rennes	Away	L 2-3	Ligue 1

Patrick Videira’s side score goals and give them away. Over their last five games they have 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost, with 8 scored and 10 conceded. They scored in every one of those games but kept no clean sheet. The most recent was a 1-3 defeat away at PSG in Ligue 1, which tells you little about a home game against a side on the same points.

The more useful result is the 2-1 win at home to Lorient in Ligue 1. Home has been the better place for Le Mans in this run: 1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost at MMArena. This is a club that rebuilt itself from the lower tiers, and in this run it has played open games and pushed numbers forward. The cost is a back line that has not yet shut a game out.

The State of Toulouse

Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Toulouse’s goals first):

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Competition
10 Oct	Monaco	Away	D 2-2	Ligue 1
19 Sep	Le Havre	Home	W 3-2	Ligue 1
12 Sep	Lorient	Away	D 2-2	Ligue 1
3 Sep	Lille	Home	L 0-1	Ligue 1
29 Aug	Brest	Away	D 2-2	Ligue 1

Jens Berthel Askou’s Toulouse arrive unbeaten in their last three. Their five-game record is 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost, with 9 scored and 9 conceded. Away from home they are hard to put down: three trips, three draws, the latest a 2-2 away at Monaco in Ligue 1. Their one defeat came at home, 0-1 to Lille, the only time in five games they failed to score.

The 2023 Coupe de France winners are not a side that folds on the road. They have also kept no clean sheets in the last five, so their away record comes from scoring their way back into games, not from shutting teams out.

Head-to-Head

We have no recent head-to-head data for this fixture, so form and venue drive this preview.

👀 What to Watch

Watch the first goal. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in five games, and both have drawn a lot of their recent matches. Le Mans have shown at home that they can take the lead and hold it, as they did against Lorient. Toulouse have shown away from home that they can stay level even when they go behind. If Le Mans score early and Toulouse cannot answer before half-time, Videira’s side get the kind of home game they want. If Toulouse stay level past the hour, their away record says they will not lose it.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Le Mans a 27% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 45% for Toulouse. Expected goals: 1.1–1.4. The lean comes from Toulouse’s unbeaten away run and from a Le Mans defence that has conceded in all five recent games. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.2%, but the win probabilities favour Toulouse, so we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. Le Mans’ unbeaten home run in this stretch means the model may be a little hard on the hosts. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Le Mans 0-1 Toulouse

Practical Info

• Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Fri 16 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Fri 16 Oct)
• Venue: MMArena
• Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 7
• Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)

FAQ

What time is Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Fri 16 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Fri 16 Oct)

Where is Le Mans vs Toulouse being played?

Venue: MMArena

How can I watch Le Mans vs Toulouse on TV?

Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)

What is the predicted score for Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Our prediction is Le Mans 0-1 Toulouse. Toulouse are unbeaten in three away games in this run, and Le Mans have not kept a clean sheet in their last five.

Where are Le Mans and Toulouse in the Ligue 1 table?

Before Matchday 7, Le Mans are 14th and Toulouse are 15th. Both clubs have 6 points from 6 games, and Le Mans sit higher.