What time is Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

Kickoff is at 17:00 CEST (Sun 11 Oct), 11:00 AM EDT (Sun 11 Oct), or 16:00 BST (Sun 11 Oct).

Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao being played?

The match takes place at the Estadio de Vallecas, Rayo Vallecano's home ground in Madrid.

What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Athletic Bilbao. The model gives Rayo a 47% win probability, and while 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline, we back the home side to edge a tight, low-scoring contest.

Who won the last meeting between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao?

The most recent meeting was a 1-1 draw at the Estadio de Vallecas in February 2026. Before that, Athletic won four consecutive fixtures against Rayo.

What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao?

In their last 10 meetings, Athletic have won 7, Rayo have won 1, and 2 ended in draws. Athletic have been dominant in this fixture, including a 4-0 win in December 2023.

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction, La Liga 2026/27

Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.

Match Prediction

47%
Rayo Vallecano win

27%
Draw

25%
Athletic Bilbao win

Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength, recent form & H2H

Most likely scores:1–1 (13.0%)1–0 (11.6%)2–1 (9.2%)

Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.

Model v2 · Generated 20 Sep 2026, 17:45 UTC · Track record

Level on Points, Worlds Apart in Recent History

Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao meet at the Estadio de Vallecas on Sunday with identical points tallies but contrasting trajectories. Athletic have won seven of the last ten meetings between these sides, including three of the last five at Vallecas. Rayo need to break a dismal run against this opponent to keep pace in a congested middle section of the table.

The State of Rayo Vallecano

Beñat San José’s side have been involved in high-scoring affairs this season. A 2-5 loss to Barcelona and a 1-4 defeat to Real Madrid show their vulnerability against elite opposition, but wins over Racing Santander (3-2) and Espanyol (2-1) prove they can compete with sides at their level. The 1-1 draw with Osasuna in their most recent outing suggests a team that is hard to put away but struggles to control games for 90 minutes.

Óscar Valentín anchors the midfield and sets the tempo for Rayo’s pressing game. Florian Lejeune brings experience at centre-back, while Andrei Rațiu provides width and defensive solidity on the right. Luiz Felipe and Marash Kumbulla offer depth in central defence, but the defensive record this season points to structural issues rather than individual lapses.

The State of Athletic Bilbao

Edin Terzić has Athletic playing pragmatic, disciplined football. The 3-0 win over Atlético Madrid was a statement result, and the 2-0 victory against Celta showed composure. However, consecutive draws against Elche (1-1) and Alavés (0-0) hint at a side losing momentum at a critical time.

Aymeric Laporte marshals the backline with authority, while Oihan Sancet is the creative hub in midfield. Unai Simón remains one of La Liga’s most reliable goalkeepers. The concern for Athletic is a recent lack of cutting edge: one goal in their last two league matches.

Head-to-Head

The numbers are stark. Athletic have won seven of the last ten meetings, with Rayo managing just one victory (a 2-1 win at San Mamés in September 2021). At Vallecas specifically, Rayo have failed to win any of the last five home meetings, losing three and drawing two. The most recent fixture here ended 1-1 in February 2026. Athletic’s dominance in this fixture is not a fluke; it is a pattern.

👀 What to Watch

The key question is whether Rayo can find a way to score against Athletic’s defence. Laporte and Yeray Álvarez form a physically imposing centre-back pairing that has historically neutralised Rayo’s direct attacking approach. Meanwhile, Rayo’s high defensive line, which has leaked goals against Barcelona and Real Madrid, could be exposed if Sancet finds space to thread passes behind the fullbacks.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Rayo Vallecano a 47% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 25% for Athletic Bilbao. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0.

The model favours the home side despite Athletic’s overwhelming head-to-head advantage. Rayo’s recent form at Vallecas and Athletic’s fading attacking output in their last two matches support a narrow home edge. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.0%, but with the win probabilities favouring one side we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections for informational use only, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Athletic Bilbao

Practical Info

Kickoff: 17:00 CEST (Sun 11 Oct) / 11:00 AM EDT (Sun 11 Oct) / 16:00 BST (Sun 11 Oct). Venue: Estadio de Vallecas. Where to watch: available via regional broadcast partners, check local listings.

FAQ

What time is Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?: Kickoff is at 17:00 CEST (Sun 11 Oct), 11:00 AM EDT (Sun 11 Oct), or 16:00 BST (Sun 11 Oct).
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao being played?: The match takes place at the Estadio de Vallecas, Rayo Vallecano's home ground in Madrid.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?: Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Athletic Bilbao. The model gives Rayo a 47% win probability, and while 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline, we back the home side to edge a tight, low-scoring contest.
Who won the last meeting between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao?: The most recent meeting was a 1-1 draw at the Estadio de Vallecas in February 2026. Before that, Athletic won four consecutive fixtures against Rayo.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao?: In their last 10 meetings, Athletic have won 7, Rayo have won 1, and 2 ended in draws. Athletic have been dominant in this fixture, including a 4-0 win in December 2023.