This table shows how the Premier League 2026/27 season is likely to end. We play out every remaining match 10,000 times with our prediction model, then count how often each club finishes where.
| # | Club | Played | Points | Projected points | Title | Top four | Bottom three |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 12 | 84 | 59% | 97% | <1% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 15 | 79 | 32% | 91% | 0% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 66 | 4% | 52% | <1% |
| 4 | Brighton | 5 | 10 | 60 | 1% | 31% | <1% |
| 5 | Manchester United | 5 | 5 | 58 | 1% | 24% | 1% |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 58 | 1% | 21% | 1% |
| 7 | Brentford | 5 | 9 | 56 | 1% | 18% | 1% |
| 8 | Newcastle | 5 | 8 | 53 | <1% | 11% | 3% |
| 9 | Leeds | 5 | 9 | 53 | <1% | 10% | 3% |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | 53 | <1% | 11% | 3% |
| 11 | Everton | 5 | 9 | 53 | <1% | 10% | 3% |
| 12 | Chelsea | 5 | 7 | 51 | <1% | 8% | 5% |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | 49 | <1% | 6% | 7% |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | 47 | <1% | 4% | 10% |
| 15 | Fulham | 5 | 2 | 46 | <1% | 3% | 12% |
| 16 | Tottenham | 5 | 2 | 42 | <1% | 1% | 22% |
| 17 | Sunderland | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0% | 1% | 24% |
| 18 | Ipswich | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0% | <1% | 58% |
| 19 | Coventry City | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0% | <1% | 61% |
| 20 | Hull City | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0% | 0% | 86% |
Sorted by projected points. The bottom three are relegated.
How this works
- Team strength comes from our Elo ratings, the same ones behind every match prediction on this site.
- Each remaining match is drawn from the model’s full score distribution, so goal difference counts too.
- Clubs level on points are split by goal difference, then goals scored. Leagues that look at head to head results first can differ slightly.
- Inside each simulated season the ratings move after every match, the same way our real ratings do. A club that starts well is rated higher for the rest of that run.
See every Premier League fixture and match preview, read how our predictions work, or check how accurate the model has been.
Results through 20 September 2026. This page updates by itself after each match day.