Rennes vs Auxerre Prediction: Ligue 1 Matchday 6 2026/27

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Match Prediction

55%
Rennes win
26%
Draw
19%
Auxerre win

Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9  |  Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength, recent form & H2H

Most likely scores:1–0 (12.8%)1–1 (12.2%)2–0 (10.9%)

Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.

Model v2 · Generated 21 Sep 2026, 19:13 UTC · Track record

Rennes Look to Bounce Back Against Resurgent Auxerre

Rennes welcome Auxerre to Roazhon Park on Sunday afternoon with contrasting recent trajectories. Rennes saw a three-match winning run ended emphatically by Lyon (0-4), while Auxerre arrive with back-to-back wins after a brutal opening to the season. The head-to-head between these two has produced wild scorelines in recent years, and this fixture carries genuine intrigue about which version of each side turns up.

The State of Rennes

Franck Haise’s side opened the campaign with a creditable 2-2 draw against PSG, then reeled off three consecutive league wins against Le Mans (3-2), Angers (2-1) and Marseille (1-0). That sequence showed a team capable of grinding out results, with the Marseille clean sheet a particular highlight. The 0-4 loss at Lyon, however, exposed defensive fragility that had been lurking beneath the surface. At Roazhon Park, Haise will look to restore order through his structured pressing system. Valentin Rongier provides metronome distribution in midfield, while Przemysław Frankowski offers width and delivery from the right. Anthony Rouault and Charlie Cresswell form a centre-back pairing that needs a response after the Lyon humbling. Brice Samba’s experience in goal will be important in steadying nerves.

The State of Auxerre

William Still’s Auxerre endured a torrid start: losses to Lens (2-5), Angers (1-3) and Lyon (1-3) left them scrambling. But consecutive wins against Nice (1-0) and Brest (2-1) have shifted the mood entirely. The defence, which leaked goals freely in August, has tightened. Sinaly Diomandé and Axel Tuanzebe bring physicality at centre-back, and Still’s preference for disciplined defensive shape appears to be taking hold. Sekou Fofana adds energy and ball-carrying ability in midfield, while Lamine Sy has provided thrust from wide areas.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has produced extreme results. Rennes won 5-0 at Roazhon Park in September 2022 and 3-0 away in February 2026. Auxerre responded with a 4-0 home win in November 2024. Two of the last six meetings were draws, including a 2-2 at Roazhon Park in October 2025. Of three meetings at this venue, Rennes have won one, Auxerre one, with one draw. Goals have flowed freely: only two of the six meetings produced two or fewer total goals.

👀 What to Watch

Rennes’ defensive reset after the Lyon mauling is the central storyline. Haise will likely demand a more conservative pressing line to avoid the gaps Lyon exploited. For Auxerre, the question is whether their newfound defensive solidity can survive away from home against a side that scored in each of its first four league matches. The matchup between Tuanzebe’s physical defending and Rennes’ movement in the final third could prove decisive.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Rennes a 55% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 19% for Auxerre. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9. Rennes’ home record and the need to respond after that Lyon defeat drive this read. Auxerre’s improved form adds a layer of uncertainty, but the model reflects the hosts’ stronger overall body of work this season. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Rennes 1-0 Auxerre

Practical Info

Kickoff: 17:15 CEST (Sun 11 Oct) / 11:15 AM EDT (Sun 11 Oct) / 16:15 BST (Sun 11 Oct). Venue: Roazhon Park. Where to watch: DAZN & broadcast partners — check local listings.

FAQ

What time is Rennes vs Auxerre?
Kickoff is at 17:15 CEST (Sun 11 Oct), 11:15 AM EDT (Sun 11 Oct), or 16:15 BST (Sun 11 Oct).
Where is Rennes vs Auxerre being played?
The match takes place at Roazhon Park, home of Stade Rennais.
Who won the last meeting between Rennes and Auxerre?
Rennes won 3-0 at Auxerre's ground in February 2026.
What is the predicted score for Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our model predicts Rennes 1-0 Auxerre. Rennes' strong home form and need to respond after a heavy defeat to Lyon make a narrow home win the most likely outcome.
How can I watch Rennes vs Auxerre?
The match is available on DAZN and broadcast partners. Check local listings for availability in your region.

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