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Match Prediction
Monaco win
Draw
Lille win
Monaco or draw
Lille or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 23 Oct 2026, 05:58 UTC · Track record
Level on Points, Separated by Nothing
Lille go into Matchday 8 fourth and Monaco fifth, each on 14 points from seven games, with Lille sitting higher. At Stade Louis II, one of these clubs will step away from the cluster near the top of Ligue 1, unless they cancel each other out. Monaco also need to break a bad run against this opponent: Lille have won the last three meetings.
The State of Monaco
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Monaco’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Lorient | Away | L 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 10 Oct | Toulouse | Home | D 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 18 Sep | Lens | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Strasbourg | Away | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 4 Sep | PSG | Away | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
Filipe Luis’s side have shown what they can do at their best. They won 2-1 away at PSG in Ligue 1, which is the strongest result in this run. Their most recent game went the other way: they lost 0-1 away at Lorient. Over five games they have 2 won, 2 drawn and 1 lost, with 7 scored and 6 conceded. They have no clean sheets in that run, and they go into this game without a win in the last 2. Monaco attack quickly and get bodies forward. That brings goals, but it leaves space behind, and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of those five games.
The State of Lille
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Lille’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct | Galatasaray | Home | L 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Oct | Brest | Home | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 13 Oct | Arsenal | Away | L 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Le Havre | Home | W 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 20 Sep | Nice | Away | L 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
Davide Ancelotti’s side have paid a price for the Champions League. They lost 0-3 away at Arsenal and lost 2-4 at home to Galatasaray. Those results drag the five-game record down to 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost, with 5 scored and 10 conceded. Lille are without a win in the last 3. Their league position tells a calmer story than their European nights. When Lille play Ligue 1 opposition, they are compact and patient, and that structure is what has kept them in the top four.
Head-to-Head
Lille have the better recent record: 5 wins to Monaco’s 2, with 3 draws across the last ten meetings. The latest was a 0-1 home defeat for Monaco on 10 May 2026, and that was Lille’s third straight win in the fixture. At Stade Louis II the record is more even, with one win each and three draws in five meetings. These games are rarely open: 6 of the 10 had two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The calendar favours Monaco. Lille hosted Galatasaray on 21 October, so they have four days to recover from a heavy European defeat and travel to the Riviera. Monaco have had a full week since Lorient. If Monaco press high early, they can test a Lille back line that has conceded 10 goals in its last five games in all competitions. The danger for Monaco is the counter: Lille scored at Stade Louis II in May and won there with one goal.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Monaco a 48% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 25% for Lille. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Home advantage, an extra few days of rest and Lille’s leaky European form drive the read towards Monaco, even with Lille’s recent edge in this fixture. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.9%, but with the win probabilities favouring Monaco we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Monaco 1-0 Lille
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Stade Louis II
- Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Monaco vs Lille?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Monaco vs Lille being played?
- Venue: Stade Louis II
- How can I watch Monaco vs Lille?
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Monaco and Lille?
- Lille won the last meeting 1-0 at Stade Louis II on 10 May 2026. It was their third straight win against Monaco.
- What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Lille?
- Our prediction is Monaco 1-0 Lille. Monaco have home advantage and more rest, while Lille have conceded 10 goals in their last five games in all competitions.