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Match Prediction
Stoke win
Draw
Bristol City win
Stoke or draw
Bristol City or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 05:47 UTC · Track record
Stoke Hunt the Top Six
Stoke go into the round sixth in the Championship on 19 points from 11 games. Bristol City sit 16th on 14 points. That is a five-point gap and ten places between them. Mark Robins’s side want to stay in the play-off places, and Michael Skubala’s team need goals before they can think about climbing.
The State of Stoke
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Stoke’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Derby | Away | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 13 Oct | Middlesbrough | Home | L 2-3 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Bolton | Away | W 2-1 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Sheffield United | Home | W 2-1 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Watford | Away | W 2-1 | Championship |
Stoke have won four of their last five, and their away form is the standout. They have won all three road games in the run, the latest a 1-0 win away at Derby. Home form is less tidy. Stoke lost 2-3 at home to Middlesbrough, one of only two home games in the run. They scored nine goals across the five games and scored in every one. They also conceded six and kept just one clean sheet. Most of those wins came by a single goal. This is a side that wins close games without overwhelming anyone. At the bet365 Stadium, the test is breaking down a visitor that has been hard to score against.
The State of Bristol City
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Bristol City’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Sheffield United | Home | L 0-1 | Championship |
| 13 Oct | Blackburn | Home | L 0-1 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Charlton | Away | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 18 Sep | Watford | Home | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 15 Sep | Lincoln City | Home | L 0-1 | Championship |
Bristol City’s problem is goals. They have scored two in five games and failed to score in three of them. They lost 0-1 at home to Blackburn and then 0-1 at home to Sheffield United, and they are now without a win in three. The defence has held up better, with four conceded. Four of the five games came at Ashton Gate, where they won just once. Their only away game in the run was a 1-1 draw away at Charlton. So a trip away may not worry them as much as the table suggests.
Head-to-Head
Across the last ten meetings, Bristol City lead with five wins to Stoke’s four, plus one draw. The most recent meeting was on 2 May 2026, when Bristol City won 2-0 at Ashton Gate. Before that, Stoke won 5-1 at the bet365 Stadium on 1 November 2025. At Stoke’s ground, the last five meetings split two wins each, with one draw. Bristol City scored in nine of the ten meetings, which does not fit their current drought.
👀 What to Watch
The first goal matters more than usual. Bristol City’s last two defeats were both 0-1, so a single goal has decided their recent games. If Stoke score early, the visitors must open up, and Stoke’s run of one-goal wins shows they can protect a lead. The other angle is Stoke’s back line. They conceded three at home to Middlesbrough, and this fixture usually gives Bristol City at least one goal. If the visitors finally score, the game becomes a different contest.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Stoke a 47% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 25% for Bristol City. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Stoke’s away results and Bristol City’s three blanks in five games drive that lean towards the home side. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.0%. But the win probabilities favour Stoke, so we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Stoke 1-0 Bristol City
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: bet365 Stadium
- Competition: Championship, Matchday 12
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
FAQ
- What time is Stoke vs Bristol City?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Stoke vs Bristol City being played?
- Venue: bet365 Stadium
- How can I watch Stoke vs Bristol City on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Stoke and Bristol City?
- Bristol City won the last meeting 2-0 at Ashton Gate on 2 May 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Stoke vs Bristol City?
- We predict Stoke 1-0 Bristol City. Stoke have won all three of their recent away games, and Bristol City failed to score in three of their last five.