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Match Prediction
Rennes win
Draw
Strasbourg win
Rennes or draw
Strasbourg or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:58 UTC · Track record
Strasbourg’s Slide Meets Rennes’ Fortress
Rennes go into the round sixth on 13 points from seven games. Strasbourg arrive 14th on 7 points, so eight places and six points separate the clubs. Hugo Oliveira’s side have lost three in a row, and a trip to Roazhon Park is a hard place to stop that run.
The State of Rennes
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Rennes’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Paris FC | Away | L 3-4 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Oct | Auxerre | Home | W 4-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Lyon | Away | L 0-4 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Sep | Marseille | Home | W 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 6 Sep | Angers | Away | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
Franck Haise’s team swing between extremes. They won 4-1 at home to Auxerre, then lost 3-4 away at Paris FC in Ligue 1. Over the five games they have scored 10 and conceded 10, with one clean sheet. Home is the difference: two games at Roazhon Park, two wins. Valentin Rongier and Mahdi Camara give the midfield control and bite, and Adrien Thomasson links the lines with his late runs. The worry is at the back. Quentin Merlin and Przemysław Frankowski push high from full-back, and that leaves Anthony Rouault and Charlie Cresswell exposed in open games. Brice Samba is the last line when that happens.
The State of Strasbourg
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Strasbourg’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | PSG | Home | L 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Oct | Nice | Away | L 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Paris FC | Away | L 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Monaco | Home | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 6 Sep | Troyes | Away | W 6-2 | Ligue 1 |
Strasbourg have gone four without a win. Their latest result was a 1-3 loss at home to PSG in Ligue 1, after a 1-2 defeat away at Nice. The 6-2 win away at Troyes now looks a long time ago. One positive survives: they have scored in all five games. The problem is the other box, with no clean sheets and 10 goals conceded. Gio Reyna is the creative outlet between the lines. Dario Essugo and Maximillian Oyedele must protect Ismaël Doukouré and Andrew Omobamidele far better than recent results suggest they have.
Head-to-Head
Rennes hold the edge with six wins to Strasbourg’s three in the last 10 meetings, plus one draw. In Brittany the record is starker: Rennes hosted five of those games, won four and drew one. The last two meetings were both three-goal wins for Rennes. They won 4-1 at Roazhon Park on 2 November 2025, then the score was Strasbourg 0-3 Rennes at Strasbourg’s ground on 19 April 2026.
👀 What to Watch
Reyna against the Rennes midfield pivot. He is the Strasbourg player most likely to find space between the lines. If Rongier and Camara shut those pockets, the visitors lose their best route to goal. At the other end, Merlin’s overlaps meet a defence that has not kept a clean sheet in five games. The Rennes full-backs could decide this, as long as their adventure does not leave the centre-backs alone on the counter.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Rennes a 48% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 25% for Strasbourg. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Rennes’ perfect home record and their unbeaten head-to-head run at Roazhon Park drive that read, while Strasbourg’s habit of scoring keeps a draw alive. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.9%, but with the win probabilities favouring Rennes we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Rennes 1-0 Strasbourg
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC / 17:15 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 12:15 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 16:15 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Roazhon Park
- Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Rennes vs Strasbourg?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC / 17:15 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 12:15 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 16:15 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Rennes vs Strasbourg being played?
- Venue: Roazhon Park
- Who won the last meeting between Rennes and Strasbourg?
- Rennes won. The score was Strasbourg 0-3 Rennes at Strasbourg's ground on 19 April 2026.
- How can I watch Rennes vs Strasbourg?
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
- What is the predicted score for Rennes vs Strasbourg?
- Our prediction is Rennes 1-0 Strasbourg. Rennes have won both home games in their recent form, while Strasbourg have lost three in a row.