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Match Prediction
Willem II win
Draw
Cambuur win
Willem II or draw
Cambuur or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:41 UTC · Track record
Tilburg Needs Points, Not Performances
Willem II go into the round 18th on 2 points from 9 games, and Cambuur arrive in Tilburg as the side the hosts must start reeling in. The visitors sit four places and seven points better off, so a home win would close the gap. Another defeat leaves John Stegeman’s side looking at a deficit that starts to harden before November.
The State of Willem II
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Willem II’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Sparta Rotterdam | Away | L 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Oct | Utrecht | Away | L 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Fortuna Sittard | Home | L 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| 15 Sep | Ajax | Away | L 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Sep | AZ | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
The tally is grim: four defeats in a row, no win in five, and 13 goals conceded against 5 scored without a single clean sheet. The defeat that hurts most came at home, where they lost 0-1 at home to Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie, a game that offered no cushion of goals at either end. The most recent loss shows the other problem. They lost 2-3 away at Sparta Rotterdam, scoring twice on the road and still leaving with nothing. The three-time Dutch champions can create something in transition. The issue is the back line, which has leaked goals in every one of those five matches. Only one of those games was in Tilburg, so this is a rare chance to play in front of their own crowd.
The State of Cambuur
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Cambuur’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | AZ | Home | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Oct | Zwolle | Away | W 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | ADO Den Haag | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | NEC | Home | W 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | Telstar | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
Johan Plat’s side are unbeaten in five, with 2 wins and 3 draws, 9 goals scored and 2 clean sheets. They drew 2-2 at home to AZ in the Eredivisie, holding their own against one of the league’s leading sides, and before that won 1-0 away at Zwolle. Away from Leeuwarden they have 1 win and 2 draws from three trips. The Frisian club has found a balance between scoring regularly and staying hard to break down.
Head-to-Head
The sample is small and old. On 10 December 2021, Cambuur won 1-3 at Tilburg (Willem II 1-3 Cambuur). The return on 11 May 2022 in Leeuwarden finished Cambuur 1-1 Willem II. Willem II have scored in both meetings but have not beaten Cambuur in either.
👀 What to Watch
The first goal matters more here than usual. Willem II have not kept a clean sheet across their last five, and Cambuur have scored in every one of their last five. If the visitors score early, the home side must chase the game with a defence that has struggled even when level. If Willem II score first, Cambuur’s away record shows they can grind out draws, so they may settle for one.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Willem II a 35% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 37% for Cambuur. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. Home advantage keeps Willem II close despite their form, while Cambuur’s run of draws and the 1-1 in the last meeting point to a shared result. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Willem II 1-1 Cambuur
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:45 UTC / 18:45 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 17:45 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 12:45 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is Willem II vs Cambuur?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:45 UTC / 18:45 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 17:45 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 12:45 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Willem II vs Cambuur being played?
- Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion
- How can I watch Willem II vs Cambuur on TV?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
- Who won the last meeting between Willem II and Cambuur?
- Nobody. Their last meeting, on 11 May 2022 in Leeuwarden, ended Cambuur 1-1 Willem II.
- What is the predicted score for Willem II vs Cambuur?
- Our prediction is Willem II 1-1 Cambuur. Home advantage helps Willem II, but Cambuur are unbeaten in five and draw often on the road.