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Match Prediction
Union Berlin win
Draw
Dortmund win
Union Berlin or draw
Dortmund or draw
Expected goals: 0.8 – 1.7 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:27 UTC · Track record
Dortmund’s Title Pace Meets Union’s Alarm
Dortmund go into Matchday 6 second on 13 points from five games. Union Berlin sit 16th on 4 points, so 14 places and nine points separate the two sides before kickoff at the Alte Försterei. For Union, the task is to stop the bleeding against the opponent that has beaten them in eight of their last 10 meetings.
The State of Union Berlin
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Union Berlin’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Elversberg | Home | W 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| 18 Sep | Bayern Munich | Away | L 0-7 | Bundesliga |
| 11 Sep | Schalke | Home | L 1-3 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Bayer Leverkusen | Away | L 0-4 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Aug | Frankfurt | Home | D 3-3 | Bundesliga |
The numbers are stark: 5 scored and 17 conceded across their last five, with three defeats. The low point was a 0-7 loss away at Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. The 1-0 win at home to Elversberg in the Bundesliga was the response Mauro Lustrinelli’s side needed. It was their first win of that run and their only clean sheet. Home ground is the lifeline. Union are 1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost at the Alte Försterei in this run, and lost both away games without scoring. The club’s identity has not changed: a compact block, hard duels, dangerous set pieces and a crowd that makes the pitch feel small.
The State of Dortmund
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Dortmund’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Bodø/Glimt | Away | L 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| 9 Oct | Werder Bremen | Home | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Stuttgart | Away | W 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Paderborn | Home | W 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| 8 Sep | Villarreal | Home | W 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
Niko Kovać’s side have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last five, with 9 scored and 5 conceded. The edge has dulled, though. A 2-2 draw at home to Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga came before a 0-1 defeat away at Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League. Dortmund arrive without a win in two. The 1-0 win away at Stuttgart in the Bundesliga shows they can grind out a result on the road. This Dortmund is organised before it is flamboyant: disciplined without the ball and direct when they win it back.
Head-to-Head
Dortmund lead the last 10 meetings 8-2, with no draws. They have won the last three, including a 3-0 win at the Alte Försterei on 24 January 2026 and a 6-0 rout in Dortmund on 22 February 2025. Union’s last win came on 5 October 2024, 2-1 at home. Their ground is the one place where this fixture has been close: Dortmund have won three of the five meetings there, Union two. Union have not scored three or more in any of the 10 meetings.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Union’s back line against Dortmund in transition. Conceding 17 in five games points to a side that opens up once it chases a match. Dortmund scored three or more in six of the 10 meetings, often after an early goal. If Union keep the shape they showed against Elversberg, the visitors must break down a deep block. Also watch Dortmund’s legs after the trip to Norway, and how much Kovać rotates.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Union Berlin a 17% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 58% for Dortmund. Expected goals: 0.8–1.7. Dortmund’s head-to-head dominance and Union’s defensive record drive that read. The Elversberg clean sheet and Dortmund’s recent dip point to a tighter game than the past meetings suggest. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Union Berlin 0-1 Dortmund
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 6
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Union Berlin vs Dortmund?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Union Berlin vs Dortmund being played?
- Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei
- How can I watch Union Berlin vs Dortmund on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Union Berlin and Dortmund?
- Dortmund won 3-0 at the Alte Försterei on 24 January 2026. It was their third straight win over Union.
- What is the predicted score for Union Berlin vs Dortmund?
- Our prediction is Union Berlin 0-1 Dortmund. Union's home resistance should keep it tight, but Dortmund's record in this fixture gives them the edge.