Hamburg vs Stuttgart Prediction: Bundesliga Matchday 6 2026

Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.

Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:27 UTC · Track record

Level on Points, Both Riding Wins

Stuttgart and Hamburg go into Matchday 6 level on 6 points from five games, with Stuttgart 11th and Hamburg 12th only on the table order. Each side arrives on a two-match winning run. The question at the Volksparkstadion is which recovery is real.

The State of Hamburg

Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Hamburg’s goals first):

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Competition
10 Oct	Hoffenheim	Away	W 3-2	Bundesliga
19 Sep	Köln	Home	W 2-1	Bundesliga
13 Sep	RB Leipzig	Away	L 0-5	Bundesliga
6 Sep	Mainz	Home	L 0-5	Bundesliga
29 Aug	Dortmund	Away	L 0-2	Bundesliga

Merlin Polzin’s side looked out of its depth for a spell this autumn. The low point was a 0-5 loss at home to Mainz, and the tally shows 15 goals conceded across the five games, with no clean sheet. Three of those five matches ended without a Hamburg goal.

The response has been sharp. Hamburg won 3-2 away at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, and that followed a home win over Köln. The Hoffenheim result matters most, because it showed a team able to score on the road and live with an open game. The worry is the same one that sank them earlier: when the shape breaks, Hamburg concede in clusters. At home, they need the crowd and a compact block more than they need a shootout.

The State of Stuttgart

Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Stuttgart’s goals first):

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Competition
14 Oct	Slovan Bratislava	Away	W 3-0	UEFA Champions League
10 Oct	Paderborn	Away	W 2-0	Bundesliga
19 Sep	Dortmund	Home	L 0-1	Bundesliga
12 Sep	Hoffenheim	Away	L 1-2	Bundesliga
9 Sep	Viking	Home	W 3-1	UEFA Champions League

Sebastian Hoeneß’s side carries more weight into this one. Stuttgart won 3-0 away at Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League and 2-0 away at Paderborn in the Bundesliga, keeping clean sheets in both. Over the five games they scored 9 and conceded 4.

The league form is less convincing than the European nights. Stuttgart lost back to back to Hoffenheim and Dortmund in the Bundesliga before the Paderborn win. Their game is built on controlled possession and patient build-up, and it travels well. The cost is the calendar: the Bratislava trip came only three days before this kickoff, so squad rotation is a real factor.

Head-to-Head

The two most recent meetings split one apiece. On 30 November 2025, Hamburg beat Stuttgart 2-1 at the Volksparkstadion. On 12 April 2026, Stuttgart won 4-0 at their own ground. Hamburg’s only win in that sample came at home.

👀 What to Watch

The key contest is Stuttgart’s possession game against Hamburg’s fragile back line. Stuttgart scored three in Bratislava and showed the patience to wear opponents down. Hamburg have conceded five twice in this run, so the first goal could decide the shape of the afternoon.

Watch Hamburg’s transitions too. The win at Hoffenheim suggests they can hurt a side that commits players forward. If Stuttgart’s legs are heavy after Europe, the home side’s counters gain value.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Hamburg a 26% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 47% for Stuttgart. Expected goals: 1.0–1.5. Stuttgart’s tighter defence and the 4-0 result in the last meeting tilt the read their way, though Hamburg’s home win over them in 2025 keeps it close. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.0%, but with the win probabilities favouring Stuttgart we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Hamburg 0-1 Stuttgart

Practical Info

• Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
• Venue: Volksparkstadion
• Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 6
• Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)

FAQ

What time is Hamburg vs Stuttgart?

Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)

Where is Hamburg vs Stuttgart being played?

Venue: Volksparkstadion

Where can I watch Hamburg vs Stuttgart on TV?

Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)

Who won the last meeting between Hamburg and Stuttgart?

Stuttgart won the last meeting 4-0 at their own ground on 12 April 2026. Hamburg won the meeting before that 2-1 at the Volksparkstadion on 30 November 2025.

What is the predicted score for Hamburg vs Stuttgart?

Our prediction is Hamburg 0-1 Stuttgart. Stuttgart's two straight clean sheets meet a Hamburg defence that has kept none in its last five games.