vs
Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.
Match Prediction
NEC win
Draw
Fortuna Sittard win
NEC or draw
Fortuna Sittard or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.8 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:04 UTC · Track record
Winless NEC Face Fortuna’s Perfect Away Run
NEC go into Matchday 9 in 11th place with 9 points from 8 games. Fortuna Sittard sit 7th on 14 points, so the visitors lead by five points and four places. The round’s last fixture brings Fortuna to the Goffertstadion. NEC have gone five games without a win, while Fortuna have won all three of their recent away games.
The State of NEC
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows NEC’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Ajax | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 20 Sep | Go Ahead Eagles | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Cambuur | Away | L 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| 8 Sep | Excelsior | Home | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 5 Sep | Feyenoord | Home | L 1-3 | Eredivisie |
Dick Schreuder’s side have drawn three and lost two of their last five, and they have conceded 10 goals in that run. They have no clean sheet in those games and have failed to score only once, so the problem is at the back. The 1-1 draw away at Ajax in the Eredivisie was the best result of the run. The 0-3 defeat away at Cambuur showed how quickly the defence can give way. The bigger worry is at home: three games at the Goffertstadion, and no wins. Two straight draws give them something to build on, but a draw on Sunday does not close the gap.
The State of Fortuna Sittard
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Fortuna Sittard’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Twente | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Willem II | Away | W 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Ajax | Home | L 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | ADO Den Haag | Away | W 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| 28 Aug | Groningen | Away | W 3-2 | Eredivisie |
Danny Buijs has a team that travels well. Fortuna have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, and all three wins came away from home. The 1-0 win away at Willem II was the only clean sheet of the run, which shows they can protect a lead. The 1-5 defeat at home to Ajax shows the other side: they concede 10 in five, the same as NEC. On the road, Fortuna sit deep and punish teams that commit too many players forward.
Head-to-Head
The last nine meetings are split evenly: three wins each and three draws. Fortuna won the two most recent games, 3-2 at Fortuna’s ground in August 2025 and 3-2 at NEC’s ground on 28 February 2026. At the Goffertstadion the record is two wins each and one draw. NEC have also won 4-1 at home twice in this sample, in December 2023 and January 2025.
👀 What to Watch
NEC must push for the win at home, but their defence has been open. Fortuna’s three away wins came from waiting and breaking at speed. If the home side pushes their full-backs high early, they leave the space that Fortuna use best. The first goal matters a lot: NEC have no clean sheet in five, and Fortuna have won every recent away game.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives NEC a 55% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 19% for Fortuna Sittard. Expected goals: 1.6–0.8. Home advantage and NEC’s run of scoring goals drive that read. Fortuna’s away form and their two recent wins over NEC suggest the model may underrate the visitors. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: NEC 1-0 Fortuna Sittard
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC / 20:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 19:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 2:00 PM EDT (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Goffertstadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC / 20:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 19:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 2:00 PM EDT (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is NEC vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
- Venue: Goffertstadion
- What channel is NEC vs Fortuna Sittard on?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
- Who won the last meeting between NEC and Fortuna Sittard?
- Fortuna Sittard won 3-2 at NEC's ground on 28 February 2026. It was their second straight win over NEC.
- What is the predicted score for NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
- Our prediction is NEC 1-0 Fortuna Sittard. Home advantage gives NEC the edge, but Fortuna's away form makes a narrow margin likely.