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Match Prediction
Bournemouth win
Draw
Sunderland win
Bournemouth or draw
Sunderland or draw
Expected goals: 1.7 – 0.8 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:57 UTC · Track record
Bottom-Four Scrap at the Vitality
Bournemouth go into Matchday 7 18th on 3 points from 6 games, still waiting for their first league win of the season. Sunderland sit one place and one point above them in 17th, carrying three straight defeats to the south coast. This is a direct fight near the foot of the table, and the loser leaves October with a real problem.
The State of Bournemouth
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Bournemouth’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Chelsea | Away | L 1-5 | Premier League |
| 20 Sep | Liverpool | Home | L 0-1 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Brentford | Home | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Newcastle | Away | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 29 Aug | Everton | Home | D 1-1 | Premier League |
Marco Rose’s side have not won in their last five, with three draws and two defeats. The trend is the worry: they lost 0-1 at home to Liverpool, then lost 1-5 away at Chelsea in the Premier League. That makes two defeats in a row. They have kept no clean sheets in that run and conceded 11 goals while scoring 6.
The draws tell a different story, though. Bournemouth scored twice in back-to-back games against Newcastle and Brentford, so the attack still creates. The issue sits at the other end. A side built to press high and play forward at speed is leaving too much space behind, and a five-goal defeat at Stamford Bridge will have sharpened every defensive conversation at the training ground.
The State of Sunderland
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Sunderland’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Brighton | Home | L 0-2 | Premier League |
| 20 Sep | Manchester City | Away | L 3-5 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Arsenal | Home | L 0-2 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Brentford | Away | D 1-1 | Premier League |
| 30 Aug | Fulham | Home | W 1-0 | Premier League |
Regis Le Bris’s team started brightly, beating Fulham 1-0 at home, then drew away at Brentford. Since then the fixture list has been brutal. They lost 0-2 at home to Arsenal, lost 3-5 away at Manchester City and then lost 0-2 at home to Brighton in the Premier League. Over five games they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 10 conceded.
The three goals at the Etihad show they can hurt opponents in transition. But they failed to score in two of their last five, and their away record in that run reads one draw and one defeat. This is the first winnable-looking fixture since early September, which brings its own pressure.
Head-to-Head
The two recent meetings were tight. Sunderland won 3-2 at their own ground on 29 November 2025. The return at the Vitality Stadium on 28 February 2026 finished 1-1. Bournemouth scored in both meetings but have not beaten Sunderland in this sample.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Bournemouth’s defensive line against Sunderland’s counter-attack. Rose’s side commit numbers forward, and Sunderland showed at Manchester City that they can punish open space. If Bournemouth keep a compact rest defence behind their press, Sunderland may struggle to create anything from settled possession, as they did against Arsenal and Brighton.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Bournemouth a 59% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 16% for Sunderland. Expected goals: 1.7–0.8. Home advantage and Bournemouth’s steadier output in front of goal drive that read, while Sunderland’s blank home games against Arsenal and Brighton suggest a thin attack against a set defence. The model may be generous to a home side with no clean sheet in five, so a nervy one-goal margin looks right. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Bournemouth 1-0 Sunderland
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 14:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 15:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 14:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 15:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Bournemouth vs Sunderland being played?
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- How can I watch Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Bournemouth and Sunderland?
- Nobody. The most recent meeting, at the Vitality Stadium on 28 February 2026, ended 1-1. Sunderland won the meeting before that 3-2 at their own ground on 29 November 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
- Bournemouth 1-0 Sunderland. Home advantage and Sunderland's struggles to score against set defences give Bournemouth the edge in a tight game.