Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Prediction: Bundesliga Matchday 6

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Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:51 UTC · Track record

Werder Test Paderborn’s Blunt Attack

Werder Bremen go into the round 7th on 8 points from 5 games, and Paderborn sit 15th on 4. That leaves eight places and four points between them before kickoff at the Weserstadion. Daniel Thioune’s side won both of their recent home games, and Ralf Kettemann’s visitors failed to score in four of their last five.

The State of Werder Bremen

Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Werder Bremen’s goals first):

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Competition
9 Oct	Dortmund	Away	D 2-2	Bundesliga
19 Sep	Augsburg	Home	W 3-2	Bundesliga
12 Sep	Köln	Away	D 1-1	Bundesliga
5 Sep	RB Leipzig	Home	W 3-1	Bundesliga
30 Aug	Freiburg	Away	L 1-4	Bundesliga

Werder are unbeaten in their last 4. The tally shows how open their football is: 10 scored, 10 conceded and no clean sheets. They scored in every one of those five games.

The result that shows their ceiling came in the Bundesliga, when they won 3-1 at home to RB Leipzig. Their most recent game was a 2-2 draw away at Dortmund, and they came back north with a point from one of the league’s hardest away days.

Under Thioune, Werder like to play forward quickly and commit runners to the box. That approach produces goals at both ends. At home, it has given them two wins from two in this sample. Away from Bremen, they have no wins: 2 drawn and 1 lost.

The State of Paderborn

Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Paderborn’s goals first):

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Competition
10 Oct	Stuttgart	Home	L 0-2	Bundesliga
20 Sep	Hoffenheim	Home	W 3-1	Bundesliga
12 Sep	Dortmund	Away	L 0-3	Bundesliga
5 Sep	Freiburg	Home	L 0-1	Bundesliga
29 Aug	Mainz	Away	D 0-0	Bundesliga

Paderborn’s record reads 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost, with 3 scored and 7 conceded. The defence is not the main problem. The attack is, with four games without a goal.

Their only win in this run was a 3-1 result at home to Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, which shows they can hurt a side when they get control. The most recent game was a 0-2 loss at home to Stuttgart. Their one clean sheet came in a 0-0 draw away at Mainz, and that game is a model for how Kettemann’s side may set up here: compact, patient and hard to play through.

Head-to-Head

The data holds only one meeting. On 13 June 2020, Paderborn lost 1-5 to Werder Bremen at Paderborn’s ground. Neither club has hosted a meeting at the Weserstadion in this sample, so Saturday gives a first data point in Bremen.

👀 What to Watch

The key contest is Werder’s attack against Paderborn’s low block. Werder have scored in every game, but they have also conceded in every game. That gives Paderborn a route: stay narrow, absorb pressure and attack the space Werder leave behind.

The question for the visitors is whether they can finish those chances. With four blanks in five, Kettemann may need more bodies forward than his shape usually allows. If Paderborn commit early, Werder’s quick forward play will find room.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Werder Bremen a 58% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 17% for Paderborn. Expected goals: 1.7–0.8. Werder’s perfect home run and Paderborn’s lack of goals drive this read, although Werder’s leaky defence keeps the margin narrow. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Werder Bremen 1-0 Paderborn

Practical Info

• Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
• Venue: Weserstadion
• Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 6
• Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)

FAQ

What time is Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?

Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)

Where is Werder Bremen vs Paderborn being played?

Venue: Weserstadion

How can I watch Werder Bremen vs Paderborn on TV?

Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)

Who won the last meeting between Werder Bremen and Paderborn?

Werder Bremen won the last meeting 5-1 at Paderborn's ground on 13 June 2020. The score is recorded as Paderborn 1-5 Werder Bremen.

What is the predicted score for Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?

Our prediction is Werder Bremen 1-0 Paderborn. Werder have won both recent home games, and Paderborn failed to score in four of their last five.