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Match Prediction
Schalke win
Draw
Mainz win
Schalke or draw
Mainz or draw
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.4 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:50 UTC · Track record
Goals Wanted at the Veltins-Arena
Schalke go into the round 13th on 5 points from 5 games, and they have scored in only two of their last five matches. Mainz arrive 8th on 7 points, so a home win would wipe out a gap of five places and two points. This fixture sets one of the league’s most erratic attacks against one of its quietest.
The State of Schalke
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Schalke’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Freiburg | Away | L 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | Elversberg | Home | D 0-0 | Bundesliga |
| 11 Sep | Union Berlin | Away | W 3-1 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Bayern Munich | Home | D 0-0 | Bundesliga |
| 30 Aug | Augsburg | Away | L 0-3 | Bundesliga |
Miron Muslic’s side have built their start on resistance, not on goals. The 0-0 at home to Bayern Munich showed how compact and disciplined they can be without the ball. The 0-0 at home to Elversberg showed the other side of it: when Schalke must take the initiative, the final ball does not arrive. The tally tells it plainly: 4 scored, 6 conceded, two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Both home games ended goalless. The 3-1 win away at Union Berlin is the one sign that this team can hurt opponents in transition. On home soil, the Veltins crowd will demand more risk than that.
The State of Mainz
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Mainz’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | L 3-4 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Mönchengladbach | Away | W 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Frankfurt | Home | L 1-3 | Bundesliga |
| 6 Sep | Hamburg | Away | W 5-0 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Aug | Paderborn | Home | D 0-0 | Bundesliga |
Urs Fischer’s Mainz are the opposite problem. Their last five produced 13 goals for and 10 against, and nothing about them is predictable. They won 5-0 away at Hamburg and 4-3 away at Mönchengladbach, then lost 3-4 at home to Bayer Leverkusen. The road suits them: two away games, two wins. At home they have not won in three. Fischer’s teams usually defend in a tight block and break quickly. This Mainz side still breaks well, but the block has leaked against good opponents.
Head-to-Head
Schalke have not lost to Mainz in the five meetings listed: two wins and three draws. The most recent came on 5 May 2023, when Schalke won 2-3 at Mainz’s ground. Before that, Schalke won 1-0 at home on 9 November 2022. Three of the five meetings had two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is whether Schalke can open the game up. Their home matches have been low on risk and low on chances. Mainz thrive when the space opens behind a defence, as their away scorelines prove. If Schalke push numbers forward and lose the ball, Mainz have the runners to punish them. If Schalke stay patient, Mainz may again have to build through a set defence, which is the job they have done worst at home.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Schalke a 28% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 44% for Mainz. Expected goals: 1.1–1.4. The lean towards Mainz comes from their away form and Schalke’s trouble scoring, although the head-to-head record gives the home side real hope. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.2%, but with the win probabilities favouring Mainz we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Schalke 0-1 Mainz
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Veltins-Arena
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 6
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Schalke vs Mainz?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Schalke vs Mainz being played?
- Venue: Veltins-Arena
- How can I watch Schalke vs Mainz on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Schalke and Mainz?
- Schalke won 2-3 at Mainz's ground on 5 May 2023. Schalke are unbeaten in the five meetings listed, with two wins and three draws.
- What is the predicted score for Schalke vs Mainz?
- Our prediction is Schalke 0-1 Mainz. Mainz have won both of their away games in recent form, and Schalke have failed to score in three of their last five.