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Match Prediction
Everton win
Draw
Chelsea win
Everton or draw
Chelsea or draw
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.1 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:49 UTC · Track record
Level on Points, First Up on Matchday 7
Everton and Chelsea open Matchday 7 at Hill Dickinson Stadium level on 10 points, with Everton fifth and Chelsea sixth after six games each. It is a contest between David Moyes’s unbeaten, hard-to-break side and Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea, who have been explosive at home and fragile on the road.
The State of Everton
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Everton’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Hull City | Away | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Ipswich | Home | W 1-0 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Tottenham | Away | D 0-0 | Premier League |
| 6 Sep | Manchester United | Home | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 29 Aug | Bournemouth | Away | D 1-1 | Premier League |
Everton have not lost in their last five, but four of those games were draws. They have scored 6 and conceded 5 in that run, with 2 clean sheets. The 0-0 away at Tottenham showed how well Moyes’s side can keep their shape. The 2-2 away at Hull City showed the other side of it: Everton keep games tight but struggle to pull clear. All three of those away games ended level. At home they have a win and a draw.
Moyes’s team is built for compact defending, direct balls into the channels and set pieces. They are comfortable without the ball and wait for the opponent to make mistakes. Against a Chelsea side that wants to dominate possession, that approach fits naturally.
The State of Chelsea
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Chelsea’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Bournemouth | Home | W 5-1 | Premier League |
| 18 Sep | Brentford | Away | L 0-3 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Hull City | Home | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 6 Sep | Arsenal | Away | L 1-2 | Premier League |
| 30 Aug | Brighton | Home | W 4-3 | Premier League |
Chelsea’s last five read 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost, with 12 goals scored and 11 conceded. They have no clean sheet in that run. They won 5-1 at home to Bournemouth in the Premier League, then the away record undercuts it: Chelsea lost 0-3 away at Brentford, and both of their away games in this sample were defeats.
Under Alonso, Chelsea build patiently from the back, push their full-backs high and commit numbers to the final third. It produces goals, but it also leaves space behind for teams that break quickly.
Head-to-Head
The most recent meeting was a 3-0 Everton win at their own ground on 21 March 2026. Across the last 10 meetings Chelsea lead with 4 wins to Everton’s 3, with 3 draws. When Everton host, though, the record flips: 3 Everton wins, 1 for Chelsea and 1 draw in 5 games. Seven of the 10 meetings produced 2 goals or fewer. The outlier is Chelsea’s 6-0 home win on 15 April 2024.
👀 What to Watch
Chelsea’s high full-backs against Everton’s counter. Brentford punished Chelsea in transition, and Moyes’s side are set up to do the same thing. The other key area is dead balls. Chelsea have conceded in every one of their last five games, and Everton’s best route to goal against a possession side is often a corner or a long throw.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Everton a 43% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 29% for Chelsea. Expected goals: 1.4–1.1. Everton’s home record in this fixture and Chelsea’s two away defeats drive that lean, while Everton’s habit of drawing keeps the stalemate firmly alive. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.3%, but with the win probabilities favouring Everton we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections for information only, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Everton 1-0 Chelsea
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC / 12:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 7:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 13:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Everton vs Chelsea?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC / 12:30 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 7:30 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 13:30 CEST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Everton vs Chelsea being played?
- Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium
- How can I watch Everton vs Chelsea?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Everton and Chelsea?
- Everton won the last meeting 3-0 at their own ground on 21 March 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Everton vs Chelsea?
- Our prediction is Everton 1-0 Chelsea. Everton's strong home record against Chelsea and Chelsea's two away defeats in their last five games tip it towards the hosts.