Burnley vs Derby Prediction: Championship 2026/27 Matchday 8

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Model v2 · Generated 15 Sep 2026, 18:37 UTC

Two Wounded Sides Meet at Turf Moor

Burnley and Derby arrive at Matchday 8 in desperate need of a result. Burnley are winless across their last five Championship outings, while Derby have lost four of their last five. This is not a glamour fixture — it is a survival scrap between two clubs with proud histories who find themselves in deep early-season trouble.

The State of Burnley

Nicky Hayen’s side cannot buy a win. Their last five Championship results read L-D-L-D-L, with the most recent a 1-3 defeat to Swansea. The pattern is stark: Burnley have scored exactly one goal in each of those five matches, suggesting they can create chances but lack the cutting edge or defensive solidity to convert possession into points. The 1-4 loss to Norwich and 1-2 to Bristol City point to a side that concedes in clusters once breached. Hayen, who arrived with a reputation for structured defensive organisation from his work in Belgium, has yet to stamp that identity on this squad. Turf Moor should offer some comfort, but the home faithful have already watched a goalless return from their only recorded home league fixture in this run — the 0-0 draw with Derby last season.

The State of Derby

John Eustace’s Derby are in freefall. After beating Portsmouth 2-0 in early September, they have lost three straight — to West Ham (0-3), West Brom (0-1), and Birmingham (1-2). The common thread is an inability to score: Derby managed just one goal across those three defeats. Eustace’s pragmatic approach served Derby well in previous seasons, but the squad looks short on firepower. The 0-3 loss to Swansea at the end of August set an ominous tone, and confidence appears fragile.

Head-to-Head

These two have been inseparable recently — and not in an entertaining way. Their last two meetings both finished 0-0: at Turf Moor in December 2024 and at Derby’s ground in April 2025. Neither side has scored against the other in those fixtures, making this one of the Championship’s most stubbornly low-scoring rivalries in recent memory.

👀 What to Watch

The key question is whether either side can break the goalscoring drought that has defined this fixture. Burnley’s one-goal-per-game consistency suggests they will create something, but Derby’s recent defensive record away from home — three goals conceded to West Ham, two to Birmingham — could finally give Burnley the opening they need. Watch for Burnley’s willingness to press high at home versus Eustace’s instinct to sit compact and frustrate. If Derby sit deep and Burnley lack the creativity to unlock them, another low-scoring stalemate is very much on the cards.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Burnley a 60% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 16% for Derby. Expected goals: 1.7–0.8. Both teams score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.

Burnley’s home advantage and Derby’s collapsing form on the road make them clear favourites here, even without a win to their name this season. The head-to-head deadlock could easily continue, but Burnley’s ability to find the net at least once in every recent match gives them an edge over a Derby side that has been shut out in three of their last five. The model puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%, reflecting the low-scoring nature of this fixture. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Burnley 1-0 Derby

Practical Info

Kickoff: 15:00 BST (Sat 19 Sep) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 19 Sep) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 19 Sep). Venue: Turf Moor. Coverage is available via regional broadcast partners — check local listings.

FAQ

What time is Burnley vs Derby kickoff?

Kickoff is at 15:00 BST (Saturday 19 September 2026), which is 10:00 AM EDT or 16:00 CEST.

Where is Burnley vs Derby being played?

The match is being played at Turf Moor, Burnley's home ground.

Who won the last meeting between Burnley and Derby?

Neither side won. Their last two meetings both ended 0-0 — at Turf Moor in December 2024 and at Derby's ground in April 2025.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Derby?

The predicted score is Burnley 1-0 Derby. Burnley have scored in each of their last five matches and hold home advantage, while Derby have struggled for goals on the road.

Who manages Burnley and Derby in 2026/27?

Burnley are managed by Nicky Hayen. Derby County are managed by John Eustace.