Torino vs Roma Prediction: Serie A Matchday 4 2026/27

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Model v2 · Generated 11 Sep 2026, 05:30 UTC

Roma’s Perfect Start Meets Torino’s Troubled Home Record

Roma arrive at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino sitting top of Serie A with three wins from three, having scored 10 goals and conceded just one. Torino, six points behind on three, have lost two of their opening three matches. The head-to-head only deepens the home side’s problem: Roma have won four of five visits here and Torino have never beaten them at this ground in the last nine meetings.

The State of Torino

Ignazio Abate’s side opened the season with back-to-back defeats, losing 2-1 to AC Milan and 2-1 to Sassuolo, before a 2-1 win over Fiorentina offered some relief on Matchday 3. That victory will have settled nerves, but the pattern is clear: Torino have conceded in every league game so far, shipping five goals in three matches. Abate, who built his reputation on defensive discipline during his playing career, will know those numbers are unsustainable. Torino have scored four times in three games, so there is life in attack, but the balance between defensive solidity and creative output has not yet been found. The early-season record suggests a side still searching for its identity under a manager who needs time to embed his methods.

The State of Roma

Gian Piero Gasperini has made an extraordinary start at Roma. Three matches, three wins, 10 goals scored, one conceded. The 4-0 demolition of Fiorentina on the opening day set the tone, and a second 4-0 against Lecce followed before a harder-fought 2-1 win over Atalanta, Gasperini’s former club. That Atalanta result is the most telling: Roma ground out a victory against a high-quality opponent. Gasperini’s trademark high-pressing, man-marking system appears to be taking root quickly. Roma share the league lead on nine points with Inter and Lazio, but their goal difference of plus nine is the best in the division among the clubs visible in the top 10.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has been painfully one-sided. Roma have won six of the last nine meetings, with two draws and just one Torino victory, which came away from home in September 2025. At the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino specifically, Roma have won four of five, with one draw. Torino have not beaten Roma on their own ground in this nine-match sample. The January 2026 meeting here ended 0-2 to Roma. Seven of the nine meetings produced two or fewer total goals, so these tend to be tight, low-scoring affairs.

👀 What to Watch

Gasperini’s man-marking system will test Torino’s ability to move the ball under pressure. Torino managed just four goals across three games; Roma have conceded just once. The question is whether Abate can find a way to create chances against a defensive structure that has barely been breached. Torino’s win over Fiorentina showed they can score when they commit bodies forward, but doing so against Gasperini’s aggressive press carries obvious risk. If Torino sit deep and try to contain, the head-to-head record suggests Roma will find a way through eventually.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Torino a 24% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 49% for Roma. Expected goals: 1.0–1.5. Both teams score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.

Roma’s perfect record, their dominant head-to-head at this ground, and Gasperini’s defensive structure all point the same way. Torino showed fight against Fiorentina, but Roma are a different proposition entirely. The model puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%, reflecting the historically low-scoring nature of this fixture. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.9%, but with the win probabilities favouring Roma we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Torino 0-1 Roma

Practical Info

Kickoff: 18:30 CEST (Mon 14 Sep) / 12:30 PM EDT (Mon 14 Sep) / 17:30 BST (Mon 14 Sep). Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Where to watch: DAZN (Italy) / TNT Sports (UK).

FAQ

What time is Torino vs Roma?

Kickoff is at 18:30 CEST (Mon 14 Sep), 12:30 PM EDT (Mon 14 Sep), or 17:30 BST (Mon 14 Sep).

Where is Torino vs Roma being played?

The match is at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Turin, Italy.

What is the predicted score for Torino vs Roma?

Our predicted scoreline is Torino 0-1 Roma. Roma's perfect start to the season and their dominant record at this ground make a narrow away win the most likely winning outcome.

Who won the last meeting between Torino and Roma?

Roma won 2-0 at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in January 2026. Roma have won six of the last nine meetings between the two sides.

How can I watch Torino vs Roma on TV?

The match is available on DAZN in Italy and TNT Sports in the UK.