Everton vs Crystal Palace Prediction | Premier League 2026

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Everton Look to Extend an Eight-Game Unbeaten Run Over Palace

Everton welcome Crystal Palace to Hill Dickinson Stadium on Matchday 1 of the ²⁰²⁶⁄₂₇ Premier League season, and the visitors arrive at a ground where the recent history reads badly for them. Palace have not beaten Everton in any of the last eight meetings between the clubs — five Everton wins, three draws, zero for the south Londoners. That is the number hanging over this fixture before a ball is kicked.

The State of Everton FC

No competitive football has been played by either club this season, so there is no form line to read — only the shape of the squad and what David Moyes has built since returning to the club. That identity is not a mystery: a back line organised around James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite, two centre-backs who defend the box rather than the halfway line, with Jordan Pickford behind them. Pickford’s distribution matters as much as his shot-stopping in this system; Everton are comfortable skipping the midfield entirely when the press invites it.

Michael Keane and Jake O’Brien give Moyes depth and positional flexibility across the back four, while Vitalii Mykolenko and Nathan Patterson offer contrasting full-back profiles — Mykolenko the more disciplined defender, Patterson the one who gets forward. Adam Aznou adds another left-sided option.

In midfield, Christian Nørgaard is the screen: a player who reads danger early and keeps the shape narrow. James Garner alongside him is the one who breaks lines with passes rather than carries. Hayden Hackney and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall bring the running that Everton’s pressing traps depend on, and Dewsbury-Hall in particular is the arriving runner in the box that this side has often lacked. Carlos Alcaraz is the improviser — the player asked to find something when the structured approach stalls.

The honest read: Everton’s registered squad here is heavily weighted towards defenders and midfielders. Goals have been the recurring problem, and nothing in the head-to-head record suggests this is a side that runs up scores. Five wins in eight against Palace, and only twice scoring three or more.

The State of Crystal Palace FC

Oliver Glasner has made Palace one of the most tactically distinct sides in the division, and the squad list reflects it. The back three of Maxence Lacroix, Chris Richards and Chadi Riad is the foundation — three defenders comfortable stepping into midfield to break the first line of a press. Riad and Lacroix in particular are aggressive front-foot defenders, which is exactly what Glasner’s high line demands.

The wing-backs are where Palace generate width and threat. Daniel Muñoz on the right is relentless, arriving in the box like an extra forward, and Tyrick Mitchell mirrors that on the left. Borna Sosa and Óscar Mingueza give Glasner alternatives with different passing ranges, while Takehiro Tomiyasu and Nathaniel Clyne add experienced cover across the back. Jaydee Canvot and Caleb Kporha represent the younger end of the defensive group.

Dean Henderson in goal is the other pillar — a goalkeeper who plays high, sweeps behind the line and takes risks in possession that a Glasner system requires. Walter Benítez, Remi Matthews and Owen Goodman back him up.

The caveat: Palace’s registered list here is entirely goalkeepers and defenders. What the front line looks like at Hill Dickinson is not something this preview can tell you.

Head-to-Head

Eight meetings, and Palace have won none of them. Everton took five, three finished level. At Goodison and now at the new ground, Everton have hosted four of those eight — winning three, drawing one, conceding nothing in the way of a Palace victory.

The pattern is tight rather than one-sided. Only two of the eight produced two goals or fewer in total, and neither side has ever managed more than three in a single meeting. The widest margin came on 22 October 2022, when Everton won 3-0 at home — the only blowout in the sample. Everton have scored in seven of eight; Palace in six.

The most recent was the closest thing to a Palace breakthrough: 10 May 2026, a 2-2 draw at Selhurst Park. Before that, Everton won 2-1 at home on 5 October 2025. The trend across the sample is Everton winning by a single goal or the game finishing level — 2-1, 1-2, 2-1, 1-1, 3-2, 0-0, 2-2. Palace keep getting close.

👀 What to Watch

Muñoz against Everton’s left side. Glasner’s system funnels a huge share of Palace’s attacking volume through his right wing-back, and Everton will likely have Mykolenko or Aznou facing him. Whether Everton double up there — Garner or Hackney dropping to cover — will shape how much territory Palace get. Everton’s answer in this fixture has usually been to defend deep and narrow, ceding the flanks and daring crosses into a box containing Tarkowski and Branthwaite. That is a matchup Everton have historically won.

Everton playing through Nørgaard against a stepping back three. Lacroix and Riad want to push forward and squeeze the game. Nørgaard’s job is to sit in the space they vacate and turn Everton’s clearances into possession. If Garner can find Dewsbury-Hall or Alcaraz between Palace’s lines quickly, Everton’s transitions become genuinely dangerous. If Palace’s press wins the second ball, Everton spend the afternoon defending their own box.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Everton a 44% chance of winning, with the draw at 28% and Crystal Palace also at 28% — a modest home edge rather than a strong one, with expected goals of 1.4 to 1.1. It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%, so this projects as a low-scoring, tight afternoon rather than an open one.

One thing worth stating plainly: 1-1 is the single most likely exact scoreline at 13.2%, ahead of 1-0 (11.0%) and 2-1 (8.9%). But because the win probabilities favour Everton, we take their most likely winning score as the headline pick rather than the draw.

The reasoning is the head-to-head and the venue. Everton have won three of the four meetings hosted at their own ground in this sample and lost none, and the fixture has repeatedly produced narrow margins — only one meeting in eight was decided by more than a single goal. Without any form data from the new season, the H2H record and Everton’s defensive spine do the heavy lifting. If anything, 44% may understate how uncomfortable this fixture has been for Palace historically, but the model’s caution is fair given no side has played a competitive minute yet.

These are model projections — not betting advice. Wager responsibly.

Prediction: Everton FC 1-0 Crystal Palace FC

Practical Info

Kick-off is 15:00 BST (Sat 22 Aug) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 22 Aug) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 22 Aug) at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)

FAQ

What time is Everton vs Crystal Palace?

Kick-off is 15:00 BST (Sat 22 Aug) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 22 Aug) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 22 Aug) on Saturday 22 August 2026.

Where is Everton vs Crystal Palace being played?

At Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton's home ground, in the 2026/27 Premier League Matchday 1.

How can I watch Everton vs Crystal Palace?

Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US).

Who won the last meeting between Everton and Crystal Palace?

Nobody — the last meeting on 10 May 2026 finished 2-2 at Crystal Palace's ground. Before that, Everton won 2-1 at home on 5 October 2025.

What is the predicted score for Everton FC vs Crystal Palace FC?

Everton FC 1-0 Crystal Palace FC. The model gives Everton a 44% win chance with expected goals of 1.4-1.1, and Palace have failed to win any of the last eight meetings between the clubs.