Alavés vs Getafe Prediction: LaLiga 2026/27 Matchday 1

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Mendizorroza Opens LaLiga’s New Season

Deportivo Alavés and Getafe CF kick off Matchday 1 of the ²⁰²⁶⁄₂₇ Primera Division — the first of the round’s ten fixtures, with nobody else playing before them. Alavés finished 14th last season on 43 points; Getafe finished 7th on 51. Between them they have produced nine meetings in the last ten with two goals or fewer, so the opening act of the season is unlikely to be a shootout.

The State of Deportivo Alavés

No competitive football has been played yet this season, so there is no form to read — only last season’s ledger, and it makes for uncomfortable arithmetic. Alavés took 43 points from 38 games: 11 wins, 10 draws, 17 defeats, with 44 scored and 56 conceded. That is a negative goal difference of 12 and a finish outside the bottom three that owed more to the draws than the wins. The 17 defeats were the same number as Getafe’s, but Alavés converted far fewer of the remaining matches into three points.

The backbone is familiar. Antonio Sivera remains the goalkeeper the whole structure is built around at Mendizorroza — a side that conceded 56 asks a lot of its keeper, and Alavés’s home record has historically been the thing that keeps them up. In front of him the centre-back options are plentiful rather than settled: Nikola Maraš, Facundo Garcés and Nicolas Valentini give the coaching staff three different profiles, with Nahuel Tenaglia and Jonny Otto covering the flanks and Moussa Diarra offering another body across the back line.

The creative burden falls where it usually does. Carles Aleñà and Denís Suárez are the two players in this squad capable of unlocking a low block with a pass rather than a run — and against Getafe, unlocking a low block is precisely the job description. Carlos Benavidez does the other half of the work, screening in front of the defence. Hugo Novoa and Ville Koski offer more direct running when the game demands width. The concern is the one the goal column already flagged: 44 goals across a full season means chances are not plentiful, and this is not a fixture that historically generates many.

The State of Getafe CF

Seventh place and 51 points last season, achieved in the most Getafe way imaginable: 32 goals scored — fewer than Alavés managed while finishing seven places lower — and only 38 conceded. Only Real Madrid (35) and Barcelona (36) conceded fewer across the whole division last season. That is the whole identity in one line. They do not need the ball, they do not need the game to be open, and they are content to win 1-0.

David Soria behind a back line of Djené Dakonam, Abdelkabir Abqar, Saba Sazonov, Juan Berrocal and Zaid Romero is a wall built for exactly this kind of away fixture. Djené in particular remains the reference point — the defender everything is organised around. Femenía Far and Andrés Garcia provide the full-back energy, Sebastián Boselli further depth.

In midfield, Orel Mangala is the most interesting piece: a ball-carrier with real physical presence, which in a Getafe shape means the difference between clearing the ball and starting an attack. Javi Muñoz supplies the running and the set-piece deliveries, and set pieces matter enormously to a side that scored 32 goals in a season. The 15 wins from 38 came almost entirely from low-scoring, controlled games.

Head-to-Head

The last ten meetings: Getafe four wins, Alavés one, five draws. Nine of the ten finished with two goals or fewer in total, and no side has scored more than twice in any of them. Alavés have found the net in just four of the ten; Getafe in seven.

At Mendizorroza specifically, the five most recent meetings break down as two Getafe wins, one Alavés win, two draws. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, when Getafe won 0-2 in Vitoria — one of only two two-goal margins in the entire sample. The other was Getafe’s 2-0 home win on 28 September 2024. Alavés’s single victory came on 18 May 2024, 1-0 at home. In the September 2025 meeting at Getafe, the sides drew 1-1.

👀 What to Watch

Aleñà and Denís Suárez against a set defence. Getafe conceded 38 in 38 games last season; nothing about the head-to-head suggests Alavés will find space in transition. That leaves the two most technical players in the home squad to create something in tight areas — and the H2H record says Alavés have failed to score in six of the last ten attempts against this opponent.

Mangala carrying, and what happens behind him. If Getafe defend deep, their route out is through midfield carries rather than possession chains. Benavidez’s ability to break that up before it reaches the final third is the single most consequential duel here — and it decides whether this is a 0-0 or a 0-1.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Deportivo Alavés a 40% chance, the draw 28%, and Getafe CF 32%, with an expected-goals line of 1.3–1.2. Both teams scoring is priced at 51% and over 2.5 goals at just 46% — a coin flip on BTTS and a lean towards the under, which fits a fixture where nine of ten recent meetings stayed at two goals or fewer.

1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring the home side we take their most likely winning score, 1-0 (10.4%). The read is straightforward: home advantage nudges Alavés ahead, but Getafe’s defensive structure — 38 conceded across last season — and their 4-1 edge in the last ten meetings mean the model’s 40% may if anything be generous to the hosts. Getafe have been the more comfortable side in this fixture for some time.

These are model projections — not betting advice. Wager responsibly.

Prediction: Deportivo Alavés 1-0 Getafe CF

Practical Info

Kickoff is 19:30 CEST (Sat 15 Aug) / 1:30 PM EDT (Sat 15 Aug) / 18:30 BST (Sat 15 Aug), at Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz. Coverage is available via regional broadcast partners — check local listings.

FAQ

What time is Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe CF?

Kickoff is 19:30 CEST (Sat 15 Aug) / 1:30 PM EDT (Sat 15 Aug) / 18:30 BST (Sat 15 Aug).

Where is Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe CF being played?

At Mendizorroza, Deportivo Alavés's home ground in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe CF?

Deportivo Alavés 1-0 Getafe CF. The model favours the hosts at 40% with an xG line of 1.3–1.2, and this fixture has produced two goals or fewer in nine of the last ten meetings — so a narrow home win is the most likely winning scoreline, even though 1-1 is the single most probable result at 13.4%.

Who won the last meeting between Deportivo Alavés and Getafe CF?

Getafe CF, 2-0 away at Mendizorroza on 8 February 2026.

What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Alavés and Getafe CF?

In the last ten meetings, Getafe CF have won four, Deportivo Alavés one, and five ended level. At Mendizorroza in that sample, Getafe won two, Alavés one, with two draws.